Curmudgeon Gamer
18 February 2009
Either disappointment or glorious success (Nintendo DSi)
So the Nintendo DSi is coming out on 5 April 2009 in the U.S. at a price of $170. (Announcement and demo video at Wired, among others.)
Either this is going to blow up in Nintendo's face or they'll come out looking even more invincible.
For a while now Sony's been selling the PlayStation Portable (PSP) for $170 by itself or $200 bundled. According to data provided to me by NPD, and some figuring done on my own through other sources, the average for PSP sales has been $190 or higher. Significantly fewer people buy the core system and many are willing to jump up $30 for a bundle.
All the while the Nintendo DS has been $130. Each month Nintendo DS sales are at least twice the monthly PSP sales. It's not that the PSP sells poorly -- it actually does pretty well -- but the Nintendo DS is in much higher demand. Yet, in January 2009, sales for the PSP were off significantly.
I don't want to read too much into a single data point, but I think it's possible that Americans (increasingly pessimistic about the economy and the future) are finally reaching the point where a slick $200 handheld system isn't feasible. Even worse, they may be saying a $170 handheld isn't worthwhile.
And that's where I'm worried that Nintendo's DSi won't catch on. The upgrades here are the SD card slot, downloadable software, and two cameras. (The GBA slot is gone, but my anecdotal experience leads me to believe no one will notice.) I believe (although I don't know for sure) that it will also play more nicely with modern wireless access points. (Goodbye WEP, I hope.)
But like the PS3, the DSi is making a proposition based on logic that the consumer won't buy. The PS3 is a great media center, hi-def player, and game system. It also is a decent way to browse the web in the living room. But it's also $400.
The DSi is 95% of the Nintendo DS, with added features -- cameras, downloadable software, and a card slot -- that bump the cost up to $170. To paraphrase a line from an article I once wrote: A consumer who can't afford a $170 handheld still won't be able to afford it just because it has two cameras and new software capabilities.
All that said, I'm terrible with predictions. That's essentially why I write about the sales figures after they come out instead of trying to predict them. And, it should be noted, the Nintendo DS launched at a higher price and eventually dropped to its current $130 level. That may well happen with the DSi, and at that point at least it should return to crazy-wild sales levels.
Either this is going to blow up in Nintendo's face or they'll come out looking even more invincible.
For a while now Sony's been selling the PlayStation Portable (PSP) for $170 by itself or $200 bundled. According to data provided to me by NPD, and some figuring done on my own through other sources, the average for PSP sales has been $190 or higher. Significantly fewer people buy the core system and many are willing to jump up $30 for a bundle.
All the while the Nintendo DS has been $130. Each month Nintendo DS sales are at least twice the monthly PSP sales. It's not that the PSP sells poorly -- it actually does pretty well -- but the Nintendo DS is in much higher demand. Yet, in January 2009, sales for the PSP were off significantly.
I don't want to read too much into a single data point, but I think it's possible that Americans (increasingly pessimistic about the economy and the future) are finally reaching the point where a slick $200 handheld system isn't feasible. Even worse, they may be saying a $170 handheld isn't worthwhile.
And that's where I'm worried that Nintendo's DSi won't catch on. The upgrades here are the SD card slot, downloadable software, and two cameras. (The GBA slot is gone, but my anecdotal experience leads me to believe no one will notice.) I believe (although I don't know for sure) that it will also play more nicely with modern wireless access points. (Goodbye WEP, I hope.)
But like the PS3, the DSi is making a proposition based on logic that the consumer won't buy. The PS3 is a great media center, hi-def player, and game system. It also is a decent way to browse the web in the living room. But it's also $400.
The DSi is 95% of the Nintendo DS, with added features -- cameras, downloadable software, and a card slot -- that bump the cost up to $170. To paraphrase a line from an article I once wrote: A consumer who can't afford a $170 handheld still won't be able to afford it just because it has two cameras and new software capabilities.
All that said, I'm terrible with predictions. That's essentially why I write about the sales figures after they come out instead of trying to predict them. And, it should be noted, the Nintendo DS launched at a higher price and eventually dropped to its current $130 level. That may well happen with the DSi, and at that point at least it should return to crazy-wild sales levels.
--jvm at 09:14
Comment
[ 4 ]
05 January 2009
Analyzing the Downloadable Game Racket
Ryan over at GamerBytes has a pretty awesome pair of articles on the top selling games on XBLA (here) and PSN (here).
I recommend them. Here's a quote I particularly liked:
Anyway, the articles are a decent read.
Disclosure: I have written pro bono for GamerBytes and the parent company (Think Services) also owns Gamasutra, for whom I write monthly.
I recommend them. Here's a quote I particularly liked:
From various sources we can see that despite some quality games coming out from smaller developers, like RooGoo and Shred Nebula, they're not selling. They can't get their name out there, and nobody is taking the time to give these games a go.Of all the stuff Sony's screwed up in the past couple of years, the PS Blog is one of their triumphs. I don't read it a lot, but they do a decent job of keeping true exclusive announcements for themselves. That increases visibility and readership tremendously, I'd imagine.Go and have a look at the US PlayStation blog - they have done a fantastic job allowing smaller developers, like the people behind high Velocity Bowling, PAIN, SuperSonic Automatic Rocket Powered Battle Cars and NovaStrike to speak directly to the community and give them a chance to convince the people. Interviews with Major Nelson are nice, but that's not enough.
Anyway, the articles are a decent read.
Disclosure: I have written pro bono for GamerBytes and the parent company (Think Services) also owns Gamasutra, for whom I write monthly.
Labels: business, online distribution, ps3, psn, xbla, xbox360
--jvm at 20:17
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[ 0 ]
06 August 2008
Hear it here too: johnC hates Apple.
No, no, Carmack doesn't really hate Apple, but he is willing to be on Jobs' "s***head list" to say Jobs doesn't get gaming. You've read it on every other site, and I'd be remiss if I didn't post it here. From Eurogamer.net:
Apple has flubbed gaming several times. I don't get it, and Carmack doesn't really go into why Apple's cried gaming "wolf" at least twice now. Jobs might not get games, but he does seem to understand business. The implication here is that Jobs doesn't understand he's tarnished Apple's reputation by exploiting Carmack a couple of times. We don't have a hint beyond naivety why Jobs doesn't ignore but, instead, botches gaming, and naivety doesn't seem like a fitting answer.
It could just be that, as a gamer once upon a time, I've had a difficult time understanding who is really in the driver's seat. I have no reason not to think Carmack's a nice guy, but I think we can read a bit into quick make-up session after the "s***head list" text-byte.
I also know that Carmack would be programming for portable platforms right now if it wouldn't disrupt id, so this isn't just brown-nosing, but there is a little, "Steve, you're an idiot. But only in a small portion of the market that you don't care about anyway. iPhone? That's great!" in there, don't you think?
Why alienate one of your bigger proponents for the iPhone as gaming platform (heck, Carmack wonders on the record if the PSP is in trouble; regardless of if he thinks it's likely, that's good for Apple) who lives in the gaming world by screwing games over on your PC platform several times? You got me. All it tells me is that in the world of personal computing, Jobs means something and Carmack is, regardless of my particular bias, just playing games.
The truth is Steve Jobs doesn't care about games. This is going to be one of those things that I say something in an interview and it gets fed back to him and I'm on his s***head list for a while on that, until he needs me to do something else there. But I think that that's my general opinion. He's not a gamer. It's difficult to ask somebody to get behind something they don't really believe in. I mean obviously he believes in the music and the iTunes and that whole side of things, and the media side of things, and he gets it and he pushes it and they do wonderful things with that, but he's not a gamer. That's just the bottom line about it. [emph mine]
Apple has flubbed gaming several times. I don't get it, and Carmack doesn't really go into why Apple's cried gaming "wolf" at least twice now. Jobs might not get games, but he does seem to understand business. The implication here is that Jobs doesn't understand he's tarnished Apple's reputation by exploiting Carmack a couple of times. We don't have a hint beyond naivety why Jobs doesn't ignore but, instead, botches gaming, and naivety doesn't seem like a fitting answer.
It could just be that, as a gamer once upon a time, I've had a difficult time understanding who is really in the driver's seat. I have no reason not to think Carmack's a nice guy, but I think we can read a bit into quick make-up session after the "s***head list" text-byte.
But I think the iPhone is a potentially extremely important platform for a lot of reasons, and I think it could be the type of thing that really makes inroads into...does it kill the PSP. [sic]
...
One of the best opportunities for years right now is for two guys to make a project - you know, an artist and a programmer - to go make something on the iPhone, and I think there are people that can make a couple of million dollars probably by having some breakout success that nobody's ever heard of, and I think that that's a really awesome opportunity right now.
I also know that Carmack would be programming for portable platforms right now if it wouldn't disrupt id, so this isn't just brown-nosing, but there is a little, "Steve, you're an idiot. But only in a small portion of the market that you don't care about anyway. iPhone? That's great!" in there, don't you think?
Why alienate one of your bigger proponents for the iPhone as gaming platform (heck, Carmack wonders on the record if the PSP is in trouble; regardless of if he thinks it's likely, that's good for Apple) who lives in the gaming world by screwing games over on your PC platform several times? You got me. All it tells me is that in the world of personal computing, Jobs means something and Carmack is, regardless of my particular bias, just playing games.
Labels: apple, business, developers, id, mobile, PC, ports, psp
--ruffin at 11:08
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[ 0 ]
31 July 2008
PSN Video Store - good start, needs improvement
The PSN Video Store launched while I was away, but I tried it out as soon as I got home. So far:
I don't believe Sony will offer HD movies for sale for quite a while, but they've got work to do with just the stuff they're offering.
The good:
Pricing is a touchy issue, I realize. The convenience of picking a movie and starting to watch it almost immediately (in SD) is a feature I'm willing to figure into my cost, but just for rentals. The delay when renting HD will keep me from going that route, I expect.
For purchases, I'm looking at $10 - $15 to download a movie that lacks basic features I expect in a DVD which retails for the same price. I don't get chapters, subtitles, special features, or commentary on the PSN Video Store, but I do with a DVD. While I can go down the street and get something that gives me noticeably more value for the same price, I won't be buying again. If I absolutely must have the movie on demand in my PS3, I'll rip it from a physical copy I own -- with captions.
If Sony fixes the pricing and features, I'll reconsider my moratorium on buying movies from PSN.
Finally, I'm pleased to see Disney movies on the list. Now, can we get some Disney movies worth watching ... like Pixar films?
- Rented RoboCop in SD (standard definition)
- Rented WarGames in SD
- Rented Donnie Brasco in HD (high definition)
- Bought Gattaca in SD
I don't believe Sony will offer HD movies for sale for quite a while, but they've got work to do with just the stuff they're offering.
The good:
- Easy to rent and buy, just like the normal PlayStation Store
- SD movies are reasonably small, around 1.6 - 1.8GB
- HD image quality is pretty nice, but I'm no expert
- Selection is decent
- SD movies have reasonable quality, but even I have noticed compression artifacts once or twice
- HD movies appear to be 7GB to 8GB, which takes a few hours to download to my PS3 conncted by 802.11b to a router which is attached to a cable modem that I'm told is attached to a 6 gigabit connection.
- No markers inside the movie file to aid in navigation, so you don't get random access of the sort you see with DVD chapters. Basically, it's modern tape or serial access.
- No subtitles/captions.
- No way to see what new movies or TV shows have been added since the last visit
- No way to buy entire seasons of TV shows at a reduced price
Pricing is a touchy issue, I realize. The convenience of picking a movie and starting to watch it almost immediately (in SD) is a feature I'm willing to figure into my cost, but just for rentals. The delay when renting HD will keep me from going that route, I expect.
For purchases, I'm looking at $10 - $15 to download a movie that lacks basic features I expect in a DVD which retails for the same price. I don't get chapters, subtitles, special features, or commentary on the PSN Video Store, but I do with a DVD. While I can go down the street and get something that gives me noticeably more value for the same price, I won't be buying again. If I absolutely must have the movie on demand in my PS3, I'll rip it from a physical copy I own -- with captions.
If Sony fixes the pricing and features, I'll reconsider my moratorium on buying movies from PSN.
Finally, I'm pleased to see Disney movies on the list. Now, can we get some Disney movies worth watching ... like Pixar films?
Labels: business, hdtv, online distribution, ps3, psn
--jvm at 21:39
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[ 3 ]
22 May 2008
Coincidence of the day
Just as my commentary proposing artificial scarcity is published, Joe Keiser at Next-Gen.biz publishes an interview in which the general manager of Xbox Live, Marc Whitten, says they will begin delisting "underperforming XBLA games".
I guess we may get some information on that scarcity issue after all...
I guess we may get some information on that scarcity issue after all...
Labels: business, nextgen, online distribution, xbla, xbox360, xboxlive
--jvm at 15:33
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[ 1 ]
Artificial Scarcity in Online Distribution
As a consumer, I hate the idea, but I thought it made for a fun gedanken experiment. Happily Gamasutra liked the idea enough to publish it. (Finally a piece that doesn't have a single graph!)
Labels: business, microsoft, nintendo, online distribution, psn, sony, virtual console, xboxlive
--jvm at 10:21
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[ 1 ]
19 May 2008
A Year Passes
Last year I started writing about the data released about the videogame industry every month by the NPD Group. The first article was about the May 2007 data, released in mid-June. I just finished the April 2008 data, which means I've done a full year in this line of work. If you care to look back at a year's worth of this kind of stuff, here you go:
- May 2007
- June 2007
- July 2007
- August 2007 - Hardware and Software
- September 2007
- October 2007
- November 2007
- December and Overview of 2007 - Hardware and Software
- January 2008
- February 2008
- March 2008
- April 2008
--jvm at 01:04
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[ 5 ]
08 May 2008
Chains of Olympus for PS2 for Xmas '08
This isn't an announcement, but a prediction. Provided the porting of Daxter from the PSP to the PS2 is true (see here, originally seen here), then Sony has to be seriously considering porting God of War: Chains of Olympus to the PS2 as well. Keep in mind that both Daxter and God of War on the PSP share some engine code, so a port of the former would accelerate a port of the latter.
According to NPD's figures, Chains of Olympus sold well over 300,000 copies in its first month on the market. A PS2 version would easily sell a million and would complement a $99 PS2 model quite well.
Given that I completed the PSP game twice (something I almost never do for long-form action games), I'd probably end up picking up the PS2 port. So make that a million copies, plus one.
In an ideal world, Sony would also get someone to port the game to the PS3 and sell it for $15 on PSN. But this is Sony we're talking about, so it will never happen.
According to NPD's figures, Chains of Olympus sold well over 300,000 copies in its first month on the market. A PS2 version would easily sell a million and would complement a $99 PS2 model quite well.
Given that I completed the PSP game twice (something I almost never do for long-form action games), I'd probably end up picking up the PS2 port. So make that a million copies, plus one.
In an ideal world, Sony would also get someone to port the game to the PS3 and sell it for $15 on PSN. But this is Sony we're talking about, so it will never happen.
--jvm at 09:24
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10 January 2008
Sony is Dancing on HD-DVD's Grave
If you ask me, all the furore surrounding the HD-DVD gloom and doom buzzing around the internet can only be a "good thing" for Sony. It's all just further proof that the symbiosis between games console and media accessory is irrevocably complete and the resulting abomination is the future. And I'm not even going to begin to theorise about how the PS3 might have helped Sony's Blu-Ray empire.
Sony are probably going to use the news as a metaphorical ladder to climb towards their metaphorical goal in the universe, which is to sell the PS3 as a "lifestyle" console. This serves the dual purpose of inevitably infuriating people who spend a considerable chunk of their time browsing internet forums (i.e: me) and also generating a huge swathe of attention (case in point: this post) where the ensuing knock-on effect will cause some people to put down money and actually buying one.
There's got to be some fence sitters, who both want to adopt a HD format and not buy the next Betamax. This news will surely encourage them towards a PS3. Right?
Of course, there's the bigger picture. We all want to be seen as cool and Sony are no different. By touting their universally-panned fence-sitting jack of all trades black box as some sort of arbitrary accessory to life then Sony aren't just making a games machine for teenagers they're making something you're not ashamed of having in your living room. I'm sure that's the sort of general consensus that Sony are getting at. I'll bet you my right arm that's the kind of stuff they talk/make Powerpoint graphs about in business meetingsDon't get me wrong, Sony are no worse than the competition. After all, my 360 has spent the last three weeks slapping me round the face with news about how I can download movies onto my games playing console, provided it's not too busy randomly exploding and I can buy a sound system big enough to drown out the console's turbine engine.
I bet even Nintendo would do it if their little white brick was powerful enough.
--Martin at 06:17
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[ 1 ]
20 December 2007
UT3 PS3 can't download mods directly: true
But this isn't news, despite complaints by Penny Arcade and now Kotaku:
But, hey, free fricking mods and levels, people. For all the kvetching we see over paid downloadable content, isn't free better, even if it takes a tiny bit of elbow grease? Jeepers.
And, no, that's not Free. It's free.
FileFront has the download and installation instructions, which, curiously, point out that removable storage of some sort is required for import. Whether it be compact flash, Memory Stick or simply a USB thumb drive, it seems one can't simply download to the PS3's built-in mass storage via the internet browser. What's up with that?Believe it or not, this was known almost a full month ago. I remembered reading it today after Mike sent me the Penny Arcade link. Read it:
What we do to finalize it, make sure it makes the most efficient use of memory, and runs the fastest, is we bake it down to the PS3 version, but that's just like saving a file in Word in a different format. If you save it on a PlayStation 3 format, you can stick it on the Internet, and someone can download it, put it on a memory card [USB drive, memory stick], and import it into their PlayStation 3 version of the game. That works really well.Awkward? Yes. Should it have been fixed before launch? Of course. Sony needs to fix it ASAP. I recall having trouble downloading themes directly from the PS3 browser too. And remember, this is the same outfit that hasn't gotten movie downloads online yet and can't seem to make an online PSP storefront that doesn't involve another machine (Windows PC or PS3).
But, hey, free fricking mods and levels, people. For all the kvetching we see over paid downloadable content, isn't free better, even if it takes a tiny bit of elbow grease? Jeepers.
And, no, that's not Free. It's free.
Labels: business, modding, online distribution, ps3, sony
--jvm at 23:45
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[ 6 ]
18 December 2007
November 2007 NPD
It's that time of month again, with NPD releasing data and me burning a weekend looking at numbers. The results are here.
The guys on NeoGAF picked up what may be an inaccuracy in the numbers NPD provided to me. I might have to fix the graph showing original Sony IP sales, since the Resistance: Fall of Man number appears to be YTD, not LTD.
Now I'm going to enjoy a little time with actual games and not sales numbers. The Burnout Paradise demo is quite slick (and just annoying enough that I'd be tempted to buy the game instead of continuing to enjoy the demo long term). I'm enjoying Syphon Filter: Dark Mirror on the PSP.
Oh, and a copy of Deep Fear for the Saturn arrived. I think I'll give that a try. The audio I've heard (MP3 link) is hilarious. Could be fun.
The guys on NeoGAF picked up what may be an inaccuracy in the numbers NPD provided to me. I might have to fix the graph showing original Sony IP sales, since the Resistance: Fall of Man number appears to be YTD, not LTD.
Now I'm going to enjoy a little time with actual games and not sales numbers. The Burnout Paradise demo is quite slick (and just annoying enough that I'd be tempted to buy the game instead of continuing to enjoy the demo long term). I'm enjoying Syphon Filter: Dark Mirror on the PSP.
Oh, and a copy of Deep Fear for the Saturn arrived. I think I'll give that a try. The audio I've heard (MP3 link) is hilarious. Could be fun.
--jvm at 13:55
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[ 0 ]
10 December 2007
What will the normals think?
How do normal people even begin to understand videogame titles? I just saw that there is going to be a new Rainbow Six game from Ubisoft and the title is this:
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas 2
I'm sure there are worse names, but this one struck me this morning as ridiculous. The only thing recognizable to an average person there is Tom Clancy. Most will have no idea what Rainbow Six means. (My recollection of the original PC game was that Rainbow referred to the nationalities of the team members.) The connection to Las Vegas isn't much of a help. And it's a sequel. Yuck.
Anyway, all this makes me wonder what soccer moms think when a kid says they want a game whose title seems so random.
Then again, over 20 years ago Mom did buy me Zork II and Zork III without really asking many questions.
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas 2
I'm sure there are worse names, but this one struck me this morning as ridiculous. The only thing recognizable to an average person there is Tom Clancy. Most will have no idea what Rainbow Six means. (My recollection of the original PC game was that Rainbow referred to the nationalities of the team members.) The connection to Las Vegas isn't much of a help. And it's a sequel. Yuck.
Anyway, all this makes me wonder what soccer moms think when a kid says they want a game whose title seems so random.
Then again, over 20 years ago Mom did buy me Zork II and Zork III without really asking many questions.
--jvm at 12:51
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[ 5 ]
03 December 2007
Horrible Sony marketing
Finishing Uncharted at the same time that I'm seeing Sony hire a new advertising agency reminds me to mention the horrible Sony presence in local GameStop stores. Sony's big first-party games for the holiday are Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction, and (maybe) Heavenly Sword. These are practically invisible to shoppers.
One particular GameStop that I visit about once a week has a single copy of Uncharted on display. Recently I saw it on the shelf with only its spine showing, making sure it won't catch anyone's attention. The copy of Ratchet & Clank they have there is on the top shelf of the PS3 section, which puts it above everyone's eye level. And I'm not even sure they have a copy of Heavenly Sword.
Sony apparently is spending some huge wad of cash ($150 million?) on promoting the PS3. The TV ads someone showed me online today were pretty good. The Uncharted one certainly nails the tone of the game. But when people get to the store, if the PS3 display is as uninteresting as what I'm seeing, then all that money will be for naught.
Then they have a PS3 kiosk, but no really interesting demos. It should be locked on a Ratchet & Clank demo or something. Heck, get a Japanese account like I did and download the Japanese Gran Turismo 5 demo. It's a beautiful looking game and will get people interested.
One particular GameStop that I visit about once a week has a single copy of Uncharted on display. Recently I saw it on the shelf with only its spine showing, making sure it won't catch anyone's attention. The copy of Ratchet & Clank they have there is on the top shelf of the PS3 section, which puts it above everyone's eye level. And I'm not even sure they have a copy of Heavenly Sword.
Sony apparently is spending some huge wad of cash ($150 million?) on promoting the PS3. The TV ads someone showed me online today were pretty good. The Uncharted one certainly nails the tone of the game. But when people get to the store, if the PS3 display is as uninteresting as what I'm seeing, then all that money will be for naught.
Then they have a PS3 kiosk, but no really interesting demos. It should be locked on a Ratchet & Clank demo or something. Heck, get a Japanese account like I did and download the Japanese Gran Turismo 5 demo. It's a beautiful looking game and will get people interested.
Labels: business, game stores, ps3, sony
--jvm at 22:18
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30 November 2007
Best year? Not for Reviews, but for Sales.
Next-Gen asked me to look into whether this was the best year ever and I started tallying up review scores. Some interesting things came out of that, a few of which are in an article there today about how this could be considered the best year.
The deal is that review scores overall are down this year. In fact, only 2006 is worse. And it's not just a fraction of a point, it's a point or two spread.
By several other measures, this has been a great year. I honestly think we could see sales over $19 billion this year. Software sales are way up. People appear to be really enjoying games, in part because of the Wii and games like Rock Band and Guitar Hero.
But my favorite bit was recalling the discussions -- particularly right after Sega went software-only -- about how maybe the market could only support two major consoles. If anything, this year has shown that the market has grown to support FOUR consoles: PS2, PS3, Wii, and Xbox 360. Sure, the PS3 is hurting, but it will still probably do a good bit better than the GameCube eventually. Maybe you want to say that the PS2 + PS3 count as one -- I'd probably accept that, but the point stands that the market is robust enough to keep three systems going, minimum.
I got some more stuff out of the digging behind this article that will either end up here or somewhere else eventually.
The deal is that review scores overall are down this year. In fact, only 2006 is worse. And it's not just a fraction of a point, it's a point or two spread.
By several other measures, this has been a great year. I honestly think we could see sales over $19 billion this year. Software sales are way up. People appear to be really enjoying games, in part because of the Wii and games like Rock Band and Guitar Hero.
But my favorite bit was recalling the discussions -- particularly right after Sega went software-only -- about how maybe the market could only support two major consoles. If anything, this year has shown that the market has grown to support FOUR consoles: PS2, PS3, Wii, and Xbox 360. Sure, the PS3 is hurting, but it will still probably do a good bit better than the GameCube eventually. Maybe you want to say that the PS2 + PS3 count as one -- I'd probably accept that, but the point stands that the market is robust enough to keep three systems going, minimum.
I got some more stuff out of the digging behind this article that will either end up here or somewhere else eventually.
--jvm at 10:10
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[ 2 ]
20 November 2007
October NPD
Another month, another set of graphs. I stuck my neck out a bit more than usual with the comments at the end on what we could expect to see in November. I might regret that.
--jvm at 11:47
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14 November 2007
First fruits of Game 3.0?
This post that just popped up on Sony's PlayStation blog shows off a way to get users creating pieces of games. Basically, you scan in objects on a white background and they become objects in some sort of game/program. Simple, but effective.
My older son has been drawing a lot lately, and getting more sophisticated as he works at it. I would really love to be able to draw some characters with him and put them into a game we could play together. Heck, how about just letting him use a prefabricated character to play in levels that he creates and scans into the PS3?
Mostly Sony has let the whole Game 3.0 concept wither away, but if this is what they plan to do with it, count me in.
My older son has been drawing a lot lately, and getting more sophisticated as he works at it. I would really love to be able to draw some characters with him and put them into a game we could play together. Heck, how about just letting him use a prefabricated character to play in levels that he creates and scans into the PS3?
Mostly Sony has let the whole Game 3.0 concept wither away, but if this is what they plan to do with it, count me in.
--jvm at 16:28
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[ 2 ]
02 November 2007
Hold on to your PS2, controllers, discs...
Last night Sony put a downloadable version of Twisted Metal 2 up on the PlayStation Store. I'd been meaning to check out one of these downloadable games, and TM2 is by far the best one they've made available. So I gave them my $6 and a few minutes later was enjoying frantic car combat in a fictional part of Los Angeles.
I liked having access to a PS1 game without having to extract it from the shelves of my library. Sony should put more games up on the store or -- my preference -- sell a downloadable software package that allows me to rip my existing PS1 games to my PS3 hard drive. Or, perhaps, charge me a small fee (say a dollar) for the service. Make me an offer, Sony, and I'll consider it. This $6-or-more-per-game racket isn't my thing, even if it is more convenient.
However, the real trouble I had with Twisted Metal 2 on the PS3 is that my preferred control scheme -- Run 'n Gun -- isn't really feasible with the SIXAXIS controller. The lower controller triggers now have a lot of analog throw, and so are not very useful as digital switches. Since PS1 games like Twisted Metal 2 don't need analog triggers, they suffer. I briefly wondered how I could hook up a PS1 or PS2 controller, and remembered that it involves some controller-to-USB dongle that I don't own (yet).
So, with rumors that a cheaper, smaller PS2 system will be out next year, this just reinforces how I think people should view playing Sony games from here on out: get two systems. Keep a PS2 around for PS2 and PS1 games and view the PS3 as purely for PS3 games and Blu-Ray movies.
I liked having access to a PS1 game without having to extract it from the shelves of my library. Sony should put more games up on the store or -- my preference -- sell a downloadable software package that allows me to rip my existing PS1 games to my PS3 hard drive. Or, perhaps, charge me a small fee (say a dollar) for the service. Make me an offer, Sony, and I'll consider it. This $6-or-more-per-game racket isn't my thing, even if it is more convenient.
However, the real trouble I had with Twisted Metal 2 on the PS3 is that my preferred control scheme -- Run 'n Gun -- isn't really feasible with the SIXAXIS controller. The lower controller triggers now have a lot of analog throw, and so are not very useful as digital switches. Since PS1 games like Twisted Metal 2 don't need analog triggers, they suffer. I briefly wondered how I could hook up a PS1 or PS2 controller, and remembered that it involves some controller-to-USB dongle that I don't own (yet).
So, with rumors that a cheaper, smaller PS2 system will be out next year, this just reinforces how I think people should view playing Sony games from here on out: get two systems. Keep a PS2 around for PS2 and PS1 games and view the PS3 as purely for PS3 games and Blu-Ray movies.
--jvm at 09:25
Comment
[ 4 ]
30 October 2007
Hope for Sony
This is apparently from a presentation by Satoru Iwata of Nintendo:
I want to highlight this one in particular:
That jump in PS3 sales in Europe is pretty amazing. The PS3 is outselling the Xbox 360 immediately following the launch of Halo 3, if I'm reading it right. I believe that's following the launch of the 40Gb PS3, and my recollection is that European countries were getting some reasonably decent bundles (like a football game or something).
If we see anything like that when Sony introduces the 40Gb PS3 here, it might be a happy holiday for Sony after all. If they're selling 2-3 times as many PS3s after the 40Gb model was introduced into Europe, that would be comparable to selling 40,000 to 60,000 PS3s per week here. That would put Sony at 160,000 - 240,000 systems per month. During the Holiday 2007, I think you can safely double that, or even triple it.
We won't know how the 40Gb $400 model is really doing February 2008, maybe even March 2008, because Holiday sales will skew the numbers higher than usual. Regardless, it sure is going to be fun to watch.
I want to highlight this one in particular:
That jump in PS3 sales in Europe is pretty amazing. The PS3 is outselling the Xbox 360 immediately following the launch of Halo 3, if I'm reading it right. I believe that's following the launch of the 40Gb PS3, and my recollection is that European countries were getting some reasonably decent bundles (like a football game or something).
If we see anything like that when Sony introduces the 40Gb PS3 here, it might be a happy holiday for Sony after all. If they're selling 2-3 times as many PS3s after the 40Gb model was introduced into Europe, that would be comparable to selling 40,000 to 60,000 PS3s per week here. That would put Sony at 160,000 - 240,000 systems per month. During the Holiday 2007, I think you can safely double that, or even triple it.
We won't know how the 40Gb $400 model is really doing February 2008, maybe even March 2008, because Holiday sales will skew the numbers higher than usual. Regardless, it sure is going to be fun to watch.
--jvm at 23:15
Comment
[ 2 ]
29 October 2007
We need videogame history yesterday
I'm too tired to go through it in detail right now, but the headline on this piece convinces me that most people writing about videogame companies haven't spent enough time reading their history.
--jvm at 21:28
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[ 2 ]
28 October 2007
Sony rushed the October price drop
Last week I wrote in my NPD article:
That's right -- it still shows the 80Gb PS3 at $600. If you check online or in the store, the price is actually $500.
Leaks from printed fliers were the source for rumors of the summer price drops by both Sony and Microsoft. Now we're seeing the reverse: Sony dropped its price unexpectedly and it's taking the fliers a couple of weeks to adjust.
Anecdotally, the October price drop for the 80Gb model appears to have been less well planned than its June introduction, as fliers the week after the announced drop to $500 still reflected the higher $600 price.I thought I might possibly be reading too much into the mistake, but now I think I had it right. In my local Circuit City Sunday advert:
That's right -- it still shows the 80Gb PS3 at $600. If you check online or in the store, the price is actually $500.
Leaks from printed fliers were the source for rumors of the summer price drops by both Sony and Microsoft. Now we're seeing the reverse: Sony dropped its price unexpectedly and it's taking the fliers a couple of weeks to adjust.
--jvm at 09:16
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[ 0 ]
27 October 2007
Sony fails at selling the PSP
When my God of War PSP demo finally came in, this little cardboard advertisement was packed inside the mailer. It's marketing like this that explains why the PSP isn't living up to its potential. Sony simply doesn't know how they want to sell the system:
The two main reasons this advertisement fails:
Look, Sony, the competition is outselling your PSP by at least a 2-to-1 ratio every month with its non-photo-music-video Nintendo DS. Their handheld's software actually gets in the top 10 on a regular basis, and even had the #1 spot for a while this year. Their marketing is focused on one thing: games. Wise up!
The two main reasons this advertisement fails:- Photos, Music, and Video come before Games. The PlayStation name is synonymous with games. Not photos. Not music. Not video. GAMES.
- Game shown (MLB '07 The Show) is available on other platforms, with better graphics and probably better network support. It does not sell people on the system's uniqueness.
Look, Sony, the competition is outselling your PSP by at least a 2-to-1 ratio every month with its non-photo-music-video Nintendo DS. Their handheld's software actually gets in the top 10 on a regular basis, and even had the #1 spot for a while this year. Their marketing is focused on one thing: games. Wise up!
--jvm at 15:46
Comment
[ 2 ]
18 October 2007
And now you've got 3 cents, Sony
Tonight Sony started offering David Jaffe's Calling All Cars games on PSN for only $4.99. I'd been considering buying it for a while, so I took the plunge. When it comes time to pay, I use my credit card to pay and...what's this? I can only put money on my account in round dollar amounts?
See, everything you can buy on PSN has a price that ends in 99 cents. Previously, when I'd purchased games, I'd been able to charge the exact cost. So last week I paid precisely $9.99 for Everyday Shooter. Perfect. Zero balance.
Now I've paid $5.00 into my PSN account and spent $4.99. That one penny is going to sit there and I won't be able to use it until I've bought 98 other items and the pennies add up. ARGH!
See, everything you can buy on PSN has a price that ends in 99 cents. Previously, when I'd purchased games, I'd been able to charge the exact cost. So last week I paid precisely $9.99 for Everyday Shooter. Perfect. Zero balance.
Now I've paid $5.00 into my PSN account and spent $4.99. That one penny is going to sit there and I won't be able to use it until I've bought 98 other items and the pennies add up. ARGH!
--jvm at 20:52
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[ 6 ]
08 October 2007
PS3 faring better than PS2, forget BC
I'm not talking about sales, mind you, just my experience. I spent about the first year of my PS2 ownership playing very few really impressive PS2 games. We had SSX and...right. By the time we got Metal Gear Solid 2 and Grand Theft Auto III in late 2001, many of us had spent a fairly barren year playing DVDs and PS1 games.
Here we are, coming up on 11 months into the PS3 life, and I've finally got a PS3. Despite what is literally a wall of unfinished PS2 games, I'm completely absorbed with PS3-specific games. Super Stardust HD is brilliant. The high score table is huge, but you can filter it to just show your friends. I've just squeaked by a friend's high score by a mere 20,000 points and he's vowed to get past me again. I presume this kind of feature is copied from Xbox Live, but it's just brilliant. Even if I don't get bested, I intend to increase the gap between my friend's score and my own, as soon as I find the time to play again.
On the other hand, flOw continues to engage me. I've discovered the third lifeform and will hopefully get another soon. I believe there are five. My elder son enjoys playing with the little creatures, even if he doesn't entirely understand the controls and lacks the fine motor skills to use the controller effectively sometimes.
I picked up Oblivion for a mere $30 and hope to grab both Warhawk and Resistance: Fall of Man before the end of the year.
And now Everyday Shooter is coming out this week.
So, I understand Josh's complaint about Sony completely dropping backward compatibility with PS2 software. I want it, and I'm glad I picked up a 60Gb model. On the other hand, I've found more than enough to keep me busy with just the PS3 parts of the system that I could have gotten a non-backward compatible model and really not have noticed very much.
That said, Sony really needs to get below $400 with their system. They're going to do ok this holiday, I suppose, but they better hope the 2008 software lineup doesn't get delayed any further and, most of all, delivers a compelling reason for Joe User to drop the money on a PS3.
Here we are, coming up on 11 months into the PS3 life, and I've finally got a PS3. Despite what is literally a wall of unfinished PS2 games, I'm completely absorbed with PS3-specific games. Super Stardust HD is brilliant. The high score table is huge, but you can filter it to just show your friends. I've just squeaked by a friend's high score by a mere 20,000 points and he's vowed to get past me again. I presume this kind of feature is copied from Xbox Live, but it's just brilliant. Even if I don't get bested, I intend to increase the gap between my friend's score and my own, as soon as I find the time to play again.
On the other hand, flOw continues to engage me. I've discovered the third lifeform and will hopefully get another soon. I believe there are five. My elder son enjoys playing with the little creatures, even if he doesn't entirely understand the controls and lacks the fine motor skills to use the controller effectively sometimes.
I picked up Oblivion for a mere $30 and hope to grab both Warhawk and Resistance: Fall of Man before the end of the year.
And now Everyday Shooter is coming out this week.
So, I understand Josh's complaint about Sony completely dropping backward compatibility with PS2 software. I want it, and I'm glad I picked up a 60Gb model. On the other hand, I've found more than enough to keep me busy with just the PS3 parts of the system that I could have gotten a non-backward compatible model and really not have noticed very much.
That said, Sony really needs to get below $400 with their system. They're going to do ok this holiday, I suppose, but they better hope the 2008 software lineup doesn't get delayed any further and, most of all, delivers a compelling reason for Joe User to drop the money on a PS3.
--jvm at 20:27
Comment
[ 8 ]
19 September 2007
Next Generation NPD
My writing on NPD's monthly videogame industry data moved this month to Next-Gen.biz. It also grew into two separate articles.
Hardware part.
Software part.
Comments, as always, are welcome.
Hardware part.
Software part.
Comments, as always, are welcome.
--jvm at 10:05
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[ 0 ]
07 September 2007
Karraker Gone
One of the better things to happen to Sony in the past year is having someone who appeared mostly sane heading up PR. Now that guy, David Karraker, is leaving to work in the "spirits industry". I suppose one might say he needed a stiff drink. In the interview he did with Next-Gen.biz today, he touts Sony's PlayStation blog as an important contribution.
He's right.
I don't keep refreshing my RSS reader waiting for a new post penned by Jack Tretton, mind you. The blog is just a glorified PR space. On the other hand, when they make an announcement on the blog before they send out a press release to the news sites, they're doing precisely what Karraker said they needed to do: take control of their own message. Sure, it's often PR garbage, but at least the public can get the PR garbage directly from that tap instead of filtered through IGN or Kotaku. Direct is better.
Of course, Sony's message, no matter how direct, hasn't always been clear. Where is Game 3.0, anyway? Why are they letting leaks set up expectations of how well PlayStation Home is progressing? They've got work to do. But, for the most part, they're right back to a healthy back-and-forth with the media and their competition.
I hope Sony gets someone as good or better than Karraker for the next PR guy. They're going to need it.
(Disclosure: I have written and continue to write for Next-Gen.biz, to whom I've linked.)
He's right.
I don't keep refreshing my RSS reader waiting for a new post penned by Jack Tretton, mind you. The blog is just a glorified PR space. On the other hand, when they make an announcement on the blog before they send out a press release to the news sites, they're doing precisely what Karraker said they needed to do: take control of their own message. Sure, it's often PR garbage, but at least the public can get the PR garbage directly from that tap instead of filtered through IGN or Kotaku. Direct is better.
Of course, Sony's message, no matter how direct, hasn't always been clear. Where is Game 3.0, anyway? Why are they letting leaks set up expectations of how well PlayStation Home is progressing? They've got work to do. But, for the most part, they're right back to a healthy back-and-forth with the media and their competition.
I hope Sony gets someone as good or better than Karraker for the next PR guy. They're going to need it.
(Disclosure: I have written and continue to write for Next-Gen.biz, to whom I've linked.)
--jvm at 16:40
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[ 0 ]
13 July 2007
Total moronic reversal
It's been an interesting few days watching the Sony situation. I have more than a few game news outlets in my RSS reader and I read NeoGAF every day. Previously I felt that the game press and forum denizens were very harsh on Sony, jumping on every piece of news that could cast Sony in a bad light. On the other hand, reports in the mainstream press were generally neutral or positive on Sony, letting Sony spin without penalty and taking Sony's line that the PlayStation 3 is both a movie player and a game machine (which allows Sony to mitigate poor game sales with better-than-HD-DVD movie sales).
The roles appear to have reversed.
After Sony's price strategy announcement (it's a drop to me, but not others apparently) and reasonable E3 press conference (again, my opinion), the game press has seemed mostly positive on Sony's prospects and the NeoGAF tide has definitely turned to favor Sony a good bit more. On the other hand, places like Forbes are giving Nintendo lots of kudos and slapping Sony around. Microsoft is just there.
The muddling of the 60Gb PS3 issue today -- saying it's going away and then not -- hasn't helped.
Anyway, you know my bias already, but that's my view.
Colin Campbell at Next-Gen.biz has an editorial about Sony's fortunes that you might read. He's not pro-Sony. Disclosure: I've written and continue to write occasionally for Next-Gen.biz.
The roles appear to have reversed.
After Sony's price strategy announcement (it's a drop to me, but not others apparently) and reasonable E3 press conference (again, my opinion), the game press has seemed mostly positive on Sony's prospects and the NeoGAF tide has definitely turned to favor Sony a good bit more. On the other hand, places like Forbes are giving Nintendo lots of kudos and slapping Sony around. Microsoft is just there.
The muddling of the 60Gb PS3 issue today -- saying it's going away and then not -- hasn't helped.
Anyway, you know my bias already, but that's my view.
Colin Campbell at Next-Gen.biz has an editorial about Sony's fortunes that you might read. He's not pro-Sony. Disclosure: I've written and continue to write occasionally for Next-Gen.biz.
--jvm at 22:36
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[ 1 ]
Sony's Infinite Price Drop Loop
Give Sony credit. They've hit on a way to announce a price drop every week from here until Christmas. Here's how it works:
- Sell two configurations, one at $500 and a better one at $600.
- Discontinue the $500 model, mark the $600 model down to $500.
- Create a newer model, price it at $600.
- Goto 2.
--jvm at 22:09
Comment
[ 1 ]
09 July 2007
The Race to Cut
Sony has announced a price drop. Other than "Do I buy in August or November?", my question is this:
Is Sony beginning the same kind or price war they started (and won) with Sega?
For context, see the text of this comment by MonkeyKing1969 on my post documenting price drops for the original PlayStation.
The blue laser diodes have reportedly dropped in cost. The Emotion Engine hardware has been dropped from the new 80Gb PlayStation 3. Sony has reported that they have nearly full capacity production of the PlayStation 3 systems. Ideally they should be able to drop prices as their costs change, and this $100 price drop seems to be part of that.
So what's different? Whereas I suspect that Sony controlled the production of almost everything in the original PlayStation and in the PlayStation 2 (except perhaps the RamBus stuff), they have a partnership with NVIDIA for the PlayStation 3's graphics chip, the RSX. That's an entanglement I bet they wish they didn't have. As I recall, NVIDIA and Microsoft didn't part on the best of terms from a similar relationship on the original Xbox.
Microsoft doesn't own everything in the Xbox 360, but it does own more than the original Xbox. Still, it does depend on IBM and ATI/AMD for parts. The Xbox 360 ain't no Saturn, so to speak, but I'd like to hear a professional's opinion on how quickly and deeply Sony and Microsoft will be able to reduce costs of their respective systems.
If Sony drops the price again in a year by another $100, I do wonder if Microsoft will be able to keep up. Perhaps at that point, Nintendo's Harrison will want to reconsider his bravado.
Is Sony beginning the same kind or price war they started (and won) with Sega?
For context, see the text of this comment by MonkeyKing1969 on my post documenting price drops for the original PlayStation.
The blue laser diodes have reportedly dropped in cost. The Emotion Engine hardware has been dropped from the new 80Gb PlayStation 3. Sony has reported that they have nearly full capacity production of the PlayStation 3 systems. Ideally they should be able to drop prices as their costs change, and this $100 price drop seems to be part of that.
So what's different? Whereas I suspect that Sony controlled the production of almost everything in the original PlayStation and in the PlayStation 2 (except perhaps the RamBus stuff), they have a partnership with NVIDIA for the PlayStation 3's graphics chip, the RSX. That's an entanglement I bet they wish they didn't have. As I recall, NVIDIA and Microsoft didn't part on the best of terms from a similar relationship on the original Xbox.
Microsoft doesn't own everything in the Xbox 360, but it does own more than the original Xbox. Still, it does depend on IBM and ATI/AMD for parts. The Xbox 360 ain't no Saturn, so to speak, but I'd like to hear a professional's opinion on how quickly and deeply Sony and Microsoft will be able to reduce costs of their respective systems.
If Sony drops the price again in a year by another $100, I do wonder if Microsoft will be able to keep up. Perhaps at that point, Nintendo's Harrison will want to reconsider his bravado.
--jvm at 23:53
Comment
[ 2 ]
Enough blame to go around
In a conference call to investors today Strauss Zelnick, Take Two Interactive's chairman, said (my emphasis):
The system that is broken here is the consolidated videogame retailer market. I know we're all tired of movie-to-game comparisons, but I think the one I have in mind is fitting. Bear with me. There will be nudity, if that matters to you.
It is my belief that smaller video rental shops can survive by offering the one thing that Blockbuster (et al) will not: dirty movies. The independent video stores in our old city all had naughty sections in the back -- tastefully separated from the mainstream movies by curtains. According to a grad school friend who used to work in one, they made a killing off of the dirty movies. (Aside: He was even encouraged to watch a variety of them so he could advise customers.)
Then all of those shops seemed to disappear and only Blockbuster remained. If you like getting your movies from behind the curtain and Blockbuster is your only option, then consolidation has limited your options. (Perhaps cheap broadband access and a river of porn on the internets killed the smaller video shops, but I have to think that Blockbuster did the most damage.)
The connection to games should be obvious. I look around and I see that in my current city the small independent game shops are gone. Instead I can now drive to a half-dozen GameStops in under 15 minutes, all with nearly identical stock. If you don't want to buy your games there you can go to Wal-mart, Target, Best Buy, or Circuit City. That's about the end of it. Or you can shop online.
Look, I understand that Sony and Nintendo refusing to license AO games in the U.S. is also a problem, but even if they weren't there, the big retailers who control most of the market would still balk at stocking an AO-rated Manhunt 2. I'd even guess that some of Sony and Nintendo's reluctance is based on the positions of the retailers. After all, lots of crazy stuff gets licensed and released in Japan and sometimes Europe.
As Josh has said recently, the ESRB should focus on informing consumers about what's in the game. The user-generated content issue notwithstanding, I think they're doing that. What happens after they assign a rating isn't really their problem.
The real problem is that Rockstar and Take Two are trying to squeeze a filthy, violent camel through the eye of a conservative corporate needle. The conservatism comes not from the ESRB but from the console manufacturers (who can be swayed, I believe) and the retailers. So yes, let's blame the retailers.
Can they be swayed too? Perhaps, but I'd rather we have a case like Manhunt 2 where Sony relents and permits a download of the game to PlayStation 3 owners and it sells like gangbusters. If the retailers smell enough profit, I'm sure they'll come around.
"We don't see ourselves in the AO business," Zelnick explained. "But if we find ourselves in the AO business, it would be because we have a title that we consider art and entertainment, that we consider is appropriately rated at AO, that we'd like to bring to market, and that I and Ben [Feder, CEO] are prepared to stand behind.Let me disagree completely.
"In that instance, one has to ask oneself what's the purpose of a rating if it in fact means that a title cannot be released? But I don't think that that issue falls at the door of retailers. Retailers are acting responsibly, frankly, and I think a retailer has a right to say, 'This is what I'm prepared to put on my shelves.' It's not correct to be critical of the retailers at all.
"Because this is a voluntary ratings system in the US, we have to be critical of ourselves if we've allowed a system to develop that prevents us from bringing a title to market that we want to bring to market. That's something that we have to address."
The system that is broken here is the consolidated videogame retailer market. I know we're all tired of movie-to-game comparisons, but I think the one I have in mind is fitting. Bear with me. There will be nudity, if that matters to you.
It is my belief that smaller video rental shops can survive by offering the one thing that Blockbuster (et al) will not: dirty movies. The independent video stores in our old city all had naughty sections in the back -- tastefully separated from the mainstream movies by curtains. According to a grad school friend who used to work in one, they made a killing off of the dirty movies. (Aside: He was even encouraged to watch a variety of them so he could advise customers.)
Then all of those shops seemed to disappear and only Blockbuster remained. If you like getting your movies from behind the curtain and Blockbuster is your only option, then consolidation has limited your options. (Perhaps cheap broadband access and a river of porn on the internets killed the smaller video shops, but I have to think that Blockbuster did the most damage.)
The connection to games should be obvious. I look around and I see that in my current city the small independent game shops are gone. Instead I can now drive to a half-dozen GameStops in under 15 minutes, all with nearly identical stock. If you don't want to buy your games there you can go to Wal-mart, Target, Best Buy, or Circuit City. That's about the end of it. Or you can shop online.
Look, I understand that Sony and Nintendo refusing to license AO games in the U.S. is also a problem, but even if they weren't there, the big retailers who control most of the market would still balk at stocking an AO-rated Manhunt 2. I'd even guess that some of Sony and Nintendo's reluctance is based on the positions of the retailers. After all, lots of crazy stuff gets licensed and released in Japan and sometimes Europe.
As Josh has said recently, the ESRB should focus on informing consumers about what's in the game. The user-generated content issue notwithstanding, I think they're doing that. What happens after they assign a rating isn't really their problem.
The real problem is that Rockstar and Take Two are trying to squeeze a filthy, violent camel through the eye of a conservative corporate needle. The conservatism comes not from the ESRB but from the console manufacturers (who can be swayed, I believe) and the retailers. So yes, let's blame the retailers.
Can they be swayed too? Perhaps, but I'd rather we have a case like Manhunt 2 where Sony relents and permits a download of the game to PlayStation 3 owners and it sells like gangbusters. If the retailers smell enough profit, I'm sure they'll come around.
Labels: business, esrb, game stores, sex, violence
--jvm at 22:54
Comment
[ 1 ]
05 July 2007
When did the original PlayStation drop in price?
My friend Kyle was asking me when the original Sony PlayStation -- the PS1 or PSX as we called it back then -- dropped in price. I had looked when I did my recent piece on console price cuts, but hadn't looked in the right places. With a bit of Lexis-Nexis hunting, I came up with the following:
Sony PlayStation launches on 9 September 1995 at $300 (i.e. $299.99).
The first price drop is from $300 to $200 and it happens on Thursday 16 May 1996, according to an AP news item that day titled "With Rollout of New Systems, Upturn Begins in Video Game Industry" written by Evan Ramstad. Quote:
To my knowledge, the precise dates of these drops were not available out on the generally available internets, but there they are now.
Sony PlayStation launches on 9 September 1995 at $300 (i.e. $299.99).
The first price drop is from $300 to $200 and it happens on Thursday 16 May 1996, according to an AP news item that day titled "With Rollout of New Systems, Upturn Begins in Video Game Industry" written by Evan Ramstad. Quote:
The Nintendo machine, along with Sony's Playstation and Sega's Saturn, stand out from their predecessors in graphics, speed and game-playing features. Sony lowered the price of its system from $ 300 to $ 200 on Thursday, beating the $ 250 price level of Sega and Nintendo.The second price drop is from $200 to $150 (i.e. $149.99) on Monday 3 March 1997, according to an AP news item that same day titled "Sony slashes prices of PlayStation, Nintendo says it will not follow" written by Rachel Beck. Quote:
Sony Computer Entertainment America launched a price war in the video-game industry Monday when it slashed the cost of its PlayStation system and accompanying software by over 25 percent.If someone has the dates for later drops, let me know and I'll add them.
Sony's popular PlayStation will now have a suggested retail price of $ 149, down $ 50, and its games will sell for $ 49.99 and under from the previous price of about $ 70.
Rival video-game maker Nintendo said it would not immediately match the cuts, although analysts said the Japanese company may have to pare prices soon to compete.
To my knowledge, the precise dates of these drops were not available out on the generally available internets, but there they are now.
--jvm at 21:43
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[ 4 ]
03 July 2007
Give Tretton a Cookie
I've not been impressed with SCEA president Jack "$1200" Tretton, but if Sony's going to fight Microsoft's moneyhats with words, I thought this was decent:
We have a very different approach to exclusives than some of our competitors. We don't buy exclusivity. We don't fund development. We don't, for lack of a better term, bribe somebody to only do a game on our platform. We earn it...I'd give Jack a cookie for that one.
[shnip]
Microsoft is too dependent on the third-party community, and Nintendo is too depended [sic, dependent, I presume] on first-party. We like to feel that we got a pretty good mix.
--jvm at 15:28
Comment
[ 3 ]
18 June 2007
Tomb Raider Anniversary sets distribution record
Not for the number of copies of Tomb Raider Anniversary sold (we'll know more about that next month) but for the number of distribution methods in the first three months on the market. A new one was just announced today. Let's count them:
- Retail box (Windows and PS2 now, PSP in a week or so, Wii and Xbox 360 late this year)
- Steam (Windows now)
- GameTap (Windows now, but GameTap will have a MacOS version late this summer. From GameTap's point of view, I can't think of a better way to introduce Mac gamers than to offer Tomb Raider Anniversary for MacOS X...)
- Episodic game for owners of Tomb Raider: Legend on Xbox 360 in September
Labels: business, gametap, online distribution, steam, tomb raider
--jvm at 11:12
Comment
[ 1 ]
15 June 2007
NPD analysis at Gamasutra
Recently the editor of Gamasutra asked me if I was up for some analysis work, and we worked out an opportunity for me to do some Friday morning comments on the monthly NPD data releases. The first such piece is up this morning. You can drop your usual insults and criticisms into the comments below.
In addition to the link, I want to raise two points that came to me while I was doing the legwork these past couple of days:
In addition to the link, I want to raise two points that came to me while I was doing the legwork these past couple of days:
- If you don't pay for the NPD reports (expensive), getting all the information in one centralized location is a real chore. While you can get some stuff from places like NeoGAF, a lot of the stuff I wanted was written out in sentences, not tables. So I spent hours extracting numbers from articles, putting them into a spreasheet, and in many cases deducing the numbers which were not said.
To elaborate: If NPD reports total sales, hardware (console and handheld combined) sales, console software sales, and accessory sales then you can deduce portable software sales by subtracting hardware, accessory, and console software from the total. If you have numbers for one segment of the market for two out of three months in a quarter and also the quarterly totals, you can deduce the missing month's segment numbers. And then using the growth percentages, you can compute numbers for all categories for the previous year.
Then there are the top software sales lists. Lately NPD is reporting top 10 software titles with sales numbers, and later in the month you can get a top 20 list, but without numbers on places 11-20. If you're lucky there will be one or two numbers for spots 11-20 mentioned in the text of an article somewhere, which gives you a bit more data for the scale of the sales for places 11-20.
Which is all to say, I'm finally in a position where I think I've got this data under control and can fill in holes and add new data as it becomes available. Perhaps I'll make periodic dumps in CVS, ODS, and XLS format here, so stay tuned. - While I was looking at present and upcoming software releases, I began to wonder if Tomb Raider Anniversary will appear on the PC sales charts for June. As we've covered before, the sales are not only in brick-and-mortar stores but also on GameTap and Steam. I consider it possible (although I don't know yet how probable) that TRA will miss the sales charts because (I believe) NPD doesn't count sales of the game through online distribution.
But the point is more general than just Tomb Raider -- as the relationship between online distribution and brick-and-mortar stores changes, a company like NPD that measures sales in brick-and-mortar stores will have to adapt. Certainly the hardware figures will continue to be interesting, but the software numbers may lose some of their meaning.
--jvm at 10:45
Comment
[ 6 ]
08 June 2007
Good timing
Yesterday I had a piece out saying that most consoles last generation sold for under $200, that therefore the magic console price is around $200, and that Microsoft was in line for a price cut given that they're about 19 months out from launch.
Today, Bloomberg has a report that says:
Today, Bloomberg has a report that says:
That may mean a price cut heading into the holiday season to spur sales of games, which do make a profit, [UBS AG analyst Heather] Bellini said.Short of an actual announcement of an Xbox 360 price cut, I couldn't have timed that any better.
[snip]
She expects a price cut as early as September.
[snip]
"We are well aware that the sweet spot of the market is really 199 bucks,'' said David Hufford, a director of Xbox product management. Sony sold 75 million PlayStation 2s at or below that price.
Labels: business
--jvm at 10:25
Comment
[ 1 ]
07 June 2007
Console price cuts
A piece about console pricing with lots of pretty graphs is up today at Next-Gen.biz if you care to check it out. I will try to get the data I used into a presentable form and attach it as an update to this post when I get time, so others have an opportunity to poke around and see what else is there.
Now if Microsoft will just drop its price, I'll be sitting pretty.
Now if Microsoft will just drop its price, I'll be sitting pretty.
--jvm at 07:20
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[ 4 ]
22 May 2007
ESRB statement on anti-tobacco groups
Has the ESRB received any pressure from anti-tobacco groups regarding the rating of games and the use of tobacco in videogames? Spokesman Eliot Mizrachi says that "[the] ESRB has not experienced 'pressure' with respect to this issue, and this may be due in part to precisely what you pointed out - that ESRB's content descriptors do a good job of identifying content that parents would be interested in knowing about given the rating category assigned." You might recall that the data I collected showed that games with a rating below M were more likely to note tobacco use or references.
--jvm at 20:40
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[ 0 ]
15 May 2007
Tobacco and game ratings, take two
I did contact the ESRB about tobacco and game ratings, and I got a very helpful response. I'm still trying to get more details, but it's worth giving this different interpretation of the data I showed the other day. The games in the ESRB game ratings search engine which show a descriptor referring to tobacco can be grouped this way:
- 29 rated E
- 18 rated E10+
- 91 rated T
- 3 rated M
Do content descriptors list all of the different content found in a game?Two conclusions I think we can safely draw from this:
Content descriptors are not intended to be a listing of every type of content one might encounter in the course of playing a game. They are applied within the context of the rating category assigned to that game, and are there to provide consumers with additional information about elements in a game that may have triggered a particular rating and/or may be of interest or concern relative to the age appropriateness of the rating category assigned.
Since content descriptors are applied in the context of their respective rating category, the absence of a content descriptor may not necessarily mean the total absence of such content, and a given content descriptor may not always refer to precisely the same type or intensity of material depending on the rating category that accompanies it. For instance, Suggestive Themes in an E10+ game may refer to a flirtatious remark whereas in a Teen game it may refer to provocative clothing on a female character.
- There are several games with M ratings that include references to tobacco or that show tobacco use but do not carry a tobacco use/reference descriptor. So the two M rated games in the ESRB searchable database are simply the two which happen to be M rated and carry a tobacco descriptor.
- The tobacco descriptor is more appropriate for games which are rated below M, namely E through T, and accordingly that's where we find almost all games using a tobacco descriptor. That seems to indicate that the rating system is doing the right thing, namely pointing out tobacco use in precisely the situations where a parent would want to know about it. If a parent is letting a child play an M-rated game, then it is quite possible that tobacco use is of far less concern than the violence that probably earned the M rating.
Question 1: How many games that include any tobacco reference/use are rated M for other reasons?With more data we could certainly answer that question and it would give us a basis to compare ESRB rating of games with this statement about rating of movies:
From July 2004-July 2006, the percentage of films that included "even a fleeting glimpse of smoking" dropped from 60 percent to 52 percent, and 75 percent of those fetched an R rating for other factors, [MPAA chairman and CEO Dan Glickman] said.Because I'm curious, I'd like to see if I can get an answer to this question:
Question 2: What contact has the ESRB had with the advocacy groups which have put pressure on the MPAA regarding tobacco use?I've asked the ESRB for an answer to Question 1 and I'll also try to pursue Question 2 as well. I'll let you know if I get any answers.
--jvm at 16:08
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[ 0 ]
14 May 2007
GameDaily: How Microsoft can win (if by win you mean lose)
I think you can rightly accuse me of being an occasional ivory tower pundit, but even I can see that this tripe from GameDaily is, well, tripe. Apparently Microsoft can take five steps to a definitive lead over Sony and Nintendo, and those steps can be summed up as "Lose money on everything."
The steps are:
They are not going to give up on making a profit -- I just don't think the company or shareholders are prepared to see another year or two of massive losses in the Xbox venture. They're not going to discount the one game that every owner -- or prospective owner -- will happily pay $60+ for this holiday season. They're not going to kill the Xbox Live goose which keeps laying those golden eggs. So far Microsoft hasn't shown the best judgment when it comes to buying studios (although Bungie turned out well), and the age of buying exclusive games has passed for now. More likely is that Microsoft should pay for exclusive bonuses for their version of a cross-platform game -- and that should be a lot cheaper than buying the whole game outright.
I understand the usual argument is that Microsoft can afford to lose money hand over fist, but does anyone really think that this reckless strategy is sound? Other than GameDaily, of course.
The steps are:
- Slash the price (i.e. lose money)
- Bundle Halo 3 for Holiday '07 (i.e. lose money)
- Make Xbox Live free (i.e. lose money)
- Acquire more studios, pay for exclusives (i.e. gamble)
- Enter the kiddie game market (i.e. go up against Nintendo on its own turf)
They are not going to give up on making a profit -- I just don't think the company or shareholders are prepared to see another year or two of massive losses in the Xbox venture. They're not going to discount the one game that every owner -- or prospective owner -- will happily pay $60+ for this holiday season. They're not going to kill the Xbox Live goose which keeps laying those golden eggs. So far Microsoft hasn't shown the best judgment when it comes to buying studios (although Bungie turned out well), and the age of buying exclusive games has passed for now. More likely is that Microsoft should pay for exclusive bonuses for their version of a cross-platform game -- and that should be a lot cheaper than buying the whole game outright.
I understand the usual argument is that Microsoft can afford to lose money hand over fist, but does anyone really think that this reckless strategy is sound? Other than GameDaily, of course.
Labels: business, microsoft, nintendo, sony, xbox360, xboxlive
--jvm at 21:27
Comment
[ 9 ]
12 May 2007
Sam & Max Season 1 DVD does the right thing
The new Sam & Max episodes, currently available only on the GameTap service, will be available on DVD soon. I had wondered in my recent discussion with Simon whether they might require a network connection, and it appears they will not:
Will the episodes on the disc require online activation?Well, it's heartening to know that in some cases the consumers are demanding standalone games and the developers & publishers are responding with the a proper alternative.
No, they won't. You'll need your disc in the drive to play, but that's it. See, we do listen to you guys!
Labels: business, copyright, drm, gametap, online distribution
--jvm at 20:54
Comment
[ 6 ]
Tobacco and game ratings
Update: After reading this over, I suggest going to this later post for follow-up comments, including information from the ESRB.
In response to public pressure, the MPAA will now consider tobacco use, particularly smoking, when assigning movie ratings. While they've stopped short of automatic R ratings for movies that show a person smoking, it does appear that they will bump a movie up in some cases if the use of smoking appears gratuitous.
I wondered what our dear old ESRB has been doing about tobacco use in games. Does smoking of tobacco get a game rated at least a T? Or maybe even M?
Apparently not.
To the ESRB's credit there are no EC (early childhood) games with any substance (alcohol, tobacco, or drugs) references. In fact, EC is so clean it doesn't include any violence (cartoon or otherwise), salty language, or gambling. Good to know.
Back to the point, this seems to highlight a difference between movie and game ratings. Glickman said that those movies with any smoking at all had generally received an R rating for other reasons. That doesn't seem to be the case for games. If I have time later, I may try to dig deeper into that disparity, but knowing there is a difference one can point to easily is interesting by itself.
Finally, I do wonder if the ESRB is getting pressure from the same interest groups, like the American Cancer Society, that have been lobbying the MPAA. Maybe I'll try to give them a call on Monday and ask for a statement.
For the record, I do not use tobacco in any form, nor does anyone in my immediate family or circle of friends.
In response to public pressure, the MPAA will now consider tobacco use, particularly smoking, when assigning movie ratings. While they've stopped short of automatic R ratings for movies that show a person smoking, it does appear that they will bump a movie up in some cases if the use of smoking appears gratuitous.
I wondered what our dear old ESRB has been doing about tobacco use in games. Does smoking of tobacco get a game rated at least a T? Or maybe even M?
Apparently not.
- 15 games with the descriptor "Use of Tobacco" (1 E, 4 E10+, 8 T, 2 M)
- 13 games with the descriptor "Tobacco Reference" (5 E, 3 E10+, 5 T)
- 27 games with the descriptor "Alcohol and Tobacco Reference" (6 E, 8 E10+, 13 T)
- 86 games with the descriptor "Use of Alcohol and Tobacco" (17 E, 3 E10+, 65 T, 1 M)
- 29 rated E
- 18 rated E10+
- 91 rated T
- 3 rated M
From July 2004-July 2006, the percentage of films that included "even a fleeting glimpse of smoking" dropped from 60 percent to 52 percent, and 75 percent of those fetched an R rating for other factors, [MPAA chairman and CEO Dan Glickman] said.So 75% of movies with even a fleeting glimpse of smoking were given R ratings -- and thereby limited in theory to people who were 17 years of age or older. By comparison, only 3 out of 141, or 2.1%, of games with any mention or use of tobacco were given an M rating, the rating that most closely approximates the MPAA's R rating. It should be noted that those 141 games include some that are several years old, and rating standards have changed over time. (I've discussed such changes at least once before.) Still, the PlayStation 3 game Calling all Cars, released just this week, has the "Alcohol and Tobacco Reference" descriptor and is rated E.
To the ESRB's credit there are no EC (early childhood) games with any substance (alcohol, tobacco, or drugs) references. In fact, EC is so clean it doesn't include any violence (cartoon or otherwise), salty language, or gambling. Good to know.
Back to the point, this seems to highlight a difference between movie and game ratings. Glickman said that those movies with any smoking at all had generally received an R rating for other reasons. That doesn't seem to be the case for games. If I have time later, I may try to dig deeper into that disparity, but knowing there is a difference one can point to easily is interesting by itself.
Finally, I do wonder if the ESRB is getting pressure from the same interest groups, like the American Cancer Society, that have been lobbying the MPAA. Maybe I'll try to give them a call on Monday and ask for a statement.
For the record, I do not use tobacco in any form, nor does anyone in my immediate family or circle of friends.
--jvm at 03:46
Comment
[ 5 ]
11 May 2007
On game preservation and GameTap
Simon of GameSetWatch has posted excerpts from a recent email conversation he and I had regarding GameTap and similar services, especially with an eye toward game preservation. You can go read it yourself.
I'll only add here that I meant to get in a mention of Save the Whales, a game which was reportedly distributed online-only and was almost lost to the digital abyss. Did I mention it was an Atari 2600 game? That's right, a game distributed through a modem to an Atari 2600 over 20 years ago. Anyway, it apparently wasn't a great game, but it didn't have to be fun to be important.
Ok, I'll add one more thing. That is not a picture of me in Simon's post. Honestly.
I'll only add here that I meant to get in a mention of Save the Whales, a game which was reportedly distributed online-only and was almost lost to the digital abyss. Did I mention it was an Atari 2600 game? That's right, a game distributed through a modem to an Atari 2600 over 20 years ago. Anyway, it apparently wasn't a great game, but it didn't have to be fun to be important.
Ok, I'll add one more thing. That is not a picture of me in Simon's post. Honestly.
Labels: atari, business, copyright, emulation, gametap, history, online distribution, steam, virtual console, xbla
--jvm at 00:50
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[ 0 ]
01 May 2007
Will Tomb Raider Anniversary be the first big business model deathmatch?
So GameTap's PR contacted me regarding this post (which I've hopefully corrected) and pointed out that GameTap will offer Tomb Raider Anniversary through its subscription service and, apparently, the new online retail service. That's certainly an important distinction, and I regret that I missed it originally because it makes the situation even more interesting.
Now, we don't know for sure that Steam will have Tomb Raider Anniversary concurrently with GameTap's subscription service and brick-and-mortar stores, but just suppose for the moment that it will. Then Tomb Raider Anniversary could well offer a comparison of business models we've never seen before:
For average Joe User with broadband access, I get the feeling that GameTap's on-demand play offers the best deal. You can sign up for a single month, play the game, and then drop the service (or switch to the free ad-driven version). If you take two months to finish it because you have a life outside games, then you end up dropping $20 on it, maximum. If owners of the boxed Windows version can get away with spending as little as $10 even after they play and sell the used game, I'd be surprised. I don't think Steam will be pricing this kind of brand new game at $10, although they should be offering it at a discounted price if they know what's good for them.
It pains me to say that GameTap offers a better value, mind you, but there you go. For Joe User, mind you, but not for me.
Now, we don't know for sure that Steam will have Tomb Raider Anniversary concurrently with GameTap's subscription service and brick-and-mortar stores, but just suppose for the moment that it will. Then Tomb Raider Anniversary could well offer a comparison of business models we've never seen before:
- Boxed sales at brick-and-mortar stores
- Virtual game sales through Steam and GameTap
- On-demand play through GameTap
For average Joe User with broadband access, I get the feeling that GameTap's on-demand play offers the best deal. You can sign up for a single month, play the game, and then drop the service (or switch to the free ad-driven version). If you take two months to finish it because you have a life outside games, then you end up dropping $20 on it, maximum. If owners of the boxed Windows version can get away with spending as little as $10 even after they play and sell the used game, I'd be surprised. I don't think Steam will be pricing this kind of brand new game at $10, although they should be offering it at a discounted price if they know what's good for them.
It pains me to say that GameTap offers a better value, mind you, but there you go. For Joe User, mind you, but not for me.
Labels: business, emulation, gametap, online distribution, tomb raider
--jvm at 16:13
Comment
[ 2 ]
GameTap to offer untethered downloads?
Updated below. Followup here.
From an interview at Next-Gen.biz this morning (my emphasis):
If anyone from Turner is reading, how about letting us in on some details of the new sales model? I'd be really interested to see what GameTap will offer that is different from what Steam and other download services are doing. Use the Contact Us link at the top of the right sidebar.
Update:
GameDaily has some other interesting data about GameTap. In particular, they say that membership is up almost 300% over 2006. I will try to go back and see if there was any information in 2006 about how many subscribers they had.
Also, they appear to be offering Tomb Raider Anniversary for on-demand play the day it launches through the GameTap subscriber service. You might recall that TRA was already coming to Steam (although it isn't clear if it's coming at launch). Certainly it's not new to see the same game on different services -- practically every one out there has a licensed version of Pac-Man -- but it is unique for the same, brand new game to show up on more than one service on launch day. Very interesting.
From an interview at Next-Gen.biz this morning (my emphasis):
[GameTap general manager Stu] Snyder also says that GameTap would be moving its TV programming from its client to the web, as well as launching a digital retail store where users will be able to buy and download new and cataloged games for keeps.That's quite possibly the best thing I've heard about GameTap in a while. If the downloads are untethered -- i.e. don't require a network connection to run and can be archived and reinstalled later without communicating with GameTap -- then I'll be really impressed. I doubt it will be as nice as downloading legal ROMs from StarROMs, data that could be used on any system with any suitable emulator. We'll see.
If anyone from Turner is reading, how about letting us in on some details of the new sales model? I'd be really interested to see what GameTap will offer that is different from what Steam and other download services are doing. Use the Contact Us link at the top of the right sidebar.
Update:
GameDaily has some other interesting data about GameTap. In particular, they say that membership is up almost 300% over 2006. I will try to go back and see if there was any information in 2006 about how many subscribers they had.
Also, they appear to be offering Tomb Raider Anniversary for on-demand play the day it launches through the GameTap subscriber service. You might recall that TRA was already coming to Steam (although it isn't clear if it's coming at launch). Certainly it's not new to see the same game on different services -- practically every one out there has a licensed version of Pac-Man -- but it is unique for the same, brand new game to show up on more than one service on launch day. Very interesting.
Labels: business, emulation, gametap, online distribution
--jvm at 09:54
Comment
[ 1 ]
30 April 2007
360 Elite Has Issues.
In what should be received with little to no surprise by anyone, we're starting to see reports that the Xbox 360 Elite is (allegedly) the same clumsy old accident-prone oaf cheekily stuffed into sexy black casing. I can believe this, for various reasons, but mostly because it conforms to my cynical tendencies and a rather drab and pessimistic view on Microsoft's business practice.
Of course, the Elite is an SKU that has divided opinion since it was announced (a brief perusal of the comments attached to my last post about it should act as a friendly microcosm) and for a while - at least in my mind - there was hope that the hardware revisions were going to cut down on the allegedly extreme failure rates experienced by various poor 360 owners. To be fair, I think it's safe to say that it's far too soon to take these reports as definite, as no launch these days is perfect and various units will inevitably break down within the first few days. As things pan out, we might start to see that the Elite actually fails less then the current Premium. It could really go either way.
Yet, news like this can hardly help matters. I've said it before, but I still breathe a little sigh of relief every time I turn my 360 on and it doesn't break. I think it's safe to say that this isn't damaging to Microsoft's sales figures, or the success of the 360 as a whole, but it would certainly cheer up cynical and fearful owners like myself. First impressions are vital, as Sony will tell you after last years E3, and if the opinion of the internet cronies is that the machine is unreliable then it'll probably stick. The curmudgeons are not a significant part of the sales market, but keeping the fans on your good side can't be a bad idea for an industry that relies, far too often, on hype and fanaticism to get its sales.
Of course, the Elite is an SKU that has divided opinion since it was announced (a brief perusal of the comments attached to my last post about it should act as a friendly microcosm) and for a while - at least in my mind - there was hope that the hardware revisions were going to cut down on the allegedly extreme failure rates experienced by various poor 360 owners. To be fair, I think it's safe to say that it's far too soon to take these reports as definite, as no launch these days is perfect and various units will inevitably break down within the first few days. As things pan out, we might start to see that the Elite actually fails less then the current Premium. It could really go either way.
Yet, news like this can hardly help matters. I've said it before, but I still breathe a little sigh of relief every time I turn my 360 on and it doesn't break. I think it's safe to say that this isn't damaging to Microsoft's sales figures, or the success of the 360 as a whole, but it would certainly cheer up cynical and fearful owners like myself. First impressions are vital, as Sony will tell you after last years E3, and if the opinion of the internet cronies is that the machine is unreliable then it'll probably stick. The curmudgeons are not a significant part of the sales market, but keeping the fans on your good side can't be a bad idea for an industry that relies, far too often, on hype and fanaticism to get its sales.
--Martin at 11:58
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[ 0 ]
PSP, the new remake dumping ground
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Sure, there are a couple of nifty games on the PSP you won't find anywhere else. Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops is one but still consists of many ideas already refined on other platforms. Lumines started on the PSP, but has since been released on Xbox Live Arcade and the PlayStation 2.
Don't get me wrong: I love good remakes. It's a weakness, and one I've not worked hard to eliminate. In my mind remakes like Ridge Racer and Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee were well worth my money. Even Ruffin, who normally chides me for indulging my appetite for these things, gifted me a copy of Resident Evil: Deadly Silence which consumed me for a couple of weeks.
But the PSP isn't doing much else nowadays. As far as the eye can see, it's remakes, rehashes, and retro collections.
In the next year we'll see the following on PSP:
Where is the PSP equivalent of Elite Beat Agents? Where is its Nintendogs or Brain Age? If Nintendo can pour money into original, unique projects and keep them exclusive to the Nintendo DS, why can't Sony do the same thing?
Sure, there are a couple of nifty games on the PSP you won't find anywhere else. Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops is one but still consists of many ideas already refined on other platforms. Lumines started on the PSP, but has since been released on Xbox Live Arcade and the PlayStation 2.
Don't get me wrong: I love good remakes. It's a weakness, and one I've not worked hard to eliminate. In my mind remakes like Ridge Racer and Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee were well worth my money. Even Ruffin, who normally chides me for indulging my appetite for these things, gifted me a copy of Resident Evil: Deadly Silence which consumed me for a couple of weeks.
But the PSP isn't doing much else nowadays. As far as the eye can see, it's remakes, rehashes, and retro collections.
In the next year we'll see the following on PSP:
- Castlevania: Dracula X Chronicles
- Parappa the Rapper
- Crazy Taxi: Fare Wars
- Final Fantasy I
- Final Fantasy II
- Taito Legends Power Up
- Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Where is the PSP equivalent of Elite Beat Agents? Where is its Nintendogs or Brain Age? If Nintendo can pour money into original, unique projects and keep them exclusive to the Nintendo DS, why can't Sony do the same thing?
--jvm at 10:35
Comment
[ 1 ]
08 April 2007
Nintendo DS vs. Sony PSP: Game pricing update
With the basic PSP dropping to $169.99, I felt it was time to see what had changed since I did some rudimentary number crunching on Nintendo DS and Sony PSP game prices five months ago. Not only has the system price dropped, but publishers have abandoned $50 PSP games. Average PSP game prices have shifted down $2.16, although it still has more high priced games than the Nintendo DS. During the same period, average DS game prices have come down about $1.68.
Here's the key result:
Some of the drop in the average PSP game price can be attributed to the disappearance of $49.99 games. In November 2006, the PSP had one such game. Removing just that one game from the November data would have dropped the average price of a PSP game by $0.16.
The only PSP game that currently lists for $49.99 is the PSP version of The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, an unreleased game slated for a December 2007 launch. (As it is unreleased, it isn't figured in the numbers shown in this article.)
Other points of interest:
The disappearance of the $50 game makes things a bit harder for publishers on the PSP. Being able to charge $50 for a PSP game was one advantage that system had over the DS. It would be interesting to know if publishers have made a pricing decision based on market conditions or whether Sony has set a $40 ceiling on PSP game prices. I suspect that Nintendo generally won't let publishers charge $40 on the Nintendo DS, although an exception has clearly been made for Final Fantasy III DS.
Now that the $50 option is missing, the big name PSP titles launch at $40. Moreover, I suspect that some publishers are less likely to stay at $40 as long when there are no games in the higher $50 bracket. Notably, even Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories can command only a $30 price tag six months after it was released; by comparison, Liberty City Stories stayed at $50 for almost the entire first year after its release.
I look forward to examining sales data over the coming months to see if the hardware and software price adjustments affect PSP sales.
Feel free to download the data for yourself: OpenOffice ODS, plaintext CSV.
Here's the key result:
| Average Game Price | Mid-Nov 2006 | Mid-Apr 2007 |
| DS | $28.97 | $27.29 |
| PSP | $31.97 | $29.83 |
Some of the drop in the average PSP game price can be attributed to the disappearance of $49.99 games. In November 2006, the PSP had one such game. Removing just that one game from the November data would have dropped the average price of a PSP game by $0.16.
The only PSP game that currently lists for $49.99 is the PSP version of The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, an unreleased game slated for a December 2007 launch. (As it is unreleased, it isn't figured in the numbers shown in this article.)
Other points of interest:
- EB Games lists 102 new games for the Nintendo DS and 94 new games for the PSP. This doesn't count out-of-stock and unreleased games, so the numbers could shift 2-3 games either way in a day's time.
- The median game price for each system is $29.99.
- About 33% of all PSP games retail for under $25. Around 41% of Nintendo DS games are below the $25 level.
- About 1/3 of all PSP games retail for $39.99. Only one Nintendo DS game sells for that price (Final Fantasy III DS), while about 23% of Nintendo DS games retail for over $30.
- 18 out of 22 Nintendo DS games priced at $34.99 are Nintendo-published games.
The disappearance of the $50 game makes things a bit harder for publishers on the PSP. Being able to charge $50 for a PSP game was one advantage that system had over the DS. It would be interesting to know if publishers have made a pricing decision based on market conditions or whether Sony has set a $40 ceiling on PSP game prices. I suspect that Nintendo generally won't let publishers charge $40 on the Nintendo DS, although an exception has clearly been made for Final Fantasy III DS.Now that the $50 option is missing, the big name PSP titles launch at $40. Moreover, I suspect that some publishers are less likely to stay at $40 as long when there are no games in the higher $50 bracket. Notably, even Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories can command only a $30 price tag six months after it was released; by comparison, Liberty City Stories stayed at $50 for almost the entire first year after its release.
I look forward to examining sales data over the coming months to see if the hardware and software price adjustments affect PSP sales.
Feel free to download the data for yourself: OpenOffice ODS, plaintext CSV.
--jvm at 01:36
Comment
[ 7 ]
04 April 2007
Sony the Copycat
In developing its online strategy, Sony ran a serious risk of being called a copycat since Microsoft had already covered the bases so well with Xbox Live. Given the blowback from the PlayStation 3's SIXAXIS controller -- which is motion sensing in a manner similar to the Wii remote -- they couldn't let it play out that way.
The GDC 2007 announcements of PlayStation Home and the Game 3.0 initiative successfully put Sony on the offensive. Phil Harrison and his crew pulled off what I'd considered impossible: planting the seeds of doubt in the Microsoft faithful. Maybe -- just maybe -- Sony's system would have features that they wanted, but couldn't have, in Xbox Live.
This doesn't mean that Sony isn't copying Xbox Live, of course. In fact, they should be mimicking every feature as fast as they can. As long as they keep the focus on what they (will) have that Microsoft doesn't, they can add the standard Xbox Live features with practical immunity from criticism.
Now, of course, Sony has to deliver. What some saw as pessimism in my recent column is actually my attempt to view the situation realistically. I encourage everyone, again, to go read what Sony announced for the PlayStation 2 in early 2000. They promised a boatload of features. Some of those features -- like downloadable movies -- still haven't materialized.
At least we have seen that downloadable movies can be done on Xbox Live. I'm sure Sony's busy copying that feature right now. If I'm right, then it will have a distinctive PlayStation Home twist when it arrives.
The GDC 2007 announcements of PlayStation Home and the Game 3.0 initiative successfully put Sony on the offensive. Phil Harrison and his crew pulled off what I'd considered impossible: planting the seeds of doubt in the Microsoft faithful. Maybe -- just maybe -- Sony's system would have features that they wanted, but couldn't have, in Xbox Live.
This doesn't mean that Sony isn't copying Xbox Live, of course. In fact, they should be mimicking every feature as fast as they can. As long as they keep the focus on what they (will) have that Microsoft doesn't, they can add the standard Xbox Live features with practical immunity from criticism.
Now, of course, Sony has to deliver. What some saw as pessimism in my recent column is actually my attempt to view the situation realistically. I encourage everyone, again, to go read what Sony announced for the PlayStation 2 in early 2000. They promised a boatload of features. Some of those features -- like downloadable movies -- still haven't materialized.
At least we have seen that downloadable movies can be done on Xbox Live. I'm sure Sony's busy copying that feature right now. If I'm right, then it will have a distinctive PlayStation Home twist when it arrives.
--jvm at 16:26
Comment
[ 3 ]
Ancestry of Game 3.0
A piece I put together on Sony's Game 3.0 is up today at Next-Gen. Consider this post a place to file complaints and other comments.
I would like to credit Josh at Cathode Tan for an idea I used in the piece, with his permission. Here is his original post in which I first read about NDAs being in the mod community, from which I drew the connection. The original forum thread that Josh is referencing is here.
I had a couple of comments about Game 3.0 that didn't fit in with the piece that I'll probably put into a later post.
I would like to credit Josh at Cathode Tan for an idea I used in the piece, with his permission. Here is his original post in which I first read about NDAs being in the mod community, from which I drew the connection. The original forum thread that Josh is referencing is here.
I had a couple of comments about Game 3.0 that didn't fit in with the piece that I'll probably put into a later post.
--jvm at 06:12
Comment
[ 2 ]
03 April 2007
GameQuest Direct and PSOne games
As I've voiced previously, recent consolidation of GameStop and EB Games and Rhino Games into a single corporation has diminished the quality of the videogame market in my area. Then I read a claim that GameQuest Direct had stopped reprinting PSOne games in response to GameStop's decision to liquidate its PSOne stock. That would be a disturbing result, if true.
In response to my questions, GameQuest's Kevin Baqai told me that the claim about their PSOne reprints was in error. "Our policy on reprints has been dictated by the consumer demands rather than GameStop or EB policies," he told me via email. So given enough demand, and successful negotiation with publishers, GameQuest would consider reprinting PSOne games. In fact, they haven't stopped talks with publishers over PSOne games, as Baqai continued: "At this moment, we are in discussions with various game publishers on PSOne titles but most resources are allocated to the PS2 since it has the largest user base which is actively purchasing games."
I continuously buy older games for every system I own, and I am pleased that GameQuest says it will continue to seek republishing older PSOne and PS2 games. However, I wonder what effect the GameStop decision had on demand for PSOne games. If a system is no longer stocked in the stores accessible to most consumers, demand may go down. GameQuest's choices may be influenced indirectly if the disappearance of PSOne software from GameStop caused a diminished demand for it among consumers.
Then again, perhaps steadfast PSOne owners will be driven to online resellers -- like GameQuest -- and demand for reprints will actually increase. After all, if a business like SongBird Productions can exist selling short runs of new games to the minuscule Atari Jaguar and Lynx market, certainly a boutique PSOne shop can make a living too?
In response to my questions, GameQuest's Kevin Baqai told me that the claim about their PSOne reprints was in error. "Our policy on reprints has been dictated by the consumer demands rather than GameStop or EB policies," he told me via email. So given enough demand, and successful negotiation with publishers, GameQuest would consider reprinting PSOne games. In fact, they haven't stopped talks with publishers over PSOne games, as Baqai continued: "At this moment, we are in discussions with various game publishers on PSOne titles but most resources are allocated to the PS2 since it has the largest user base which is actively purchasing games."
I continuously buy older games for every system I own, and I am pleased that GameQuest says it will continue to seek republishing older PSOne and PS2 games. However, I wonder what effect the GameStop decision had on demand for PSOne games. If a system is no longer stocked in the stores accessible to most consumers, demand may go down. GameQuest's choices may be influenced indirectly if the disappearance of PSOne software from GameStop caused a diminished demand for it among consumers.
Then again, perhaps steadfast PSOne owners will be driven to online resellers -- like GameQuest -- and demand for reprints will actually increase. After all, if a business like SongBird Productions can exist selling short runs of new games to the minuscule Atari Jaguar and Lynx market, certainly a boutique PSOne shop can make a living too?
Labels: business, game stores
--jvm at 10:43
Comment
[ 0 ]
15 March 2007
Sony needs dose of competence, better webmonkeys
Starting five months ago, I've periodically complained about Sony's failure to execute on distributing game demos for the PSP. About 45 days ago Sony promised improvement, and to their credit there is now a prominently featured link right on the front of their PSP site which claims to list all PSP demos. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Sony has managed to screw it up.
If you have a PSP with browser, or you use the correct user agent string in your non-PSP browser (namely "Mozilla/4.0 (PSP (PlayStation Portable); 2.00)"), you can visit the official PSP site. When you get there, you'll see this:
Prominently featured on the main page is a link to the All Demos page. It's the blue bar in the screenshot above. As of this moment there are four demos listed on the page advertised as listing all PSP demos, as shown below:
What's wrong with that? The total number of demos is six, not four! (In case you're wondering, I'm not hiding anything below the bottom of the screen in the shot above. It doesn't scroll any further, and there are no other games to show.)
You may recall that 45 days ago Sony was advertising its Killzone: Liberation demo, although not on this All Demos page. To this day that demo is not visible through Sony's official PSP browser site. Since the announcement of improved demo support Sony has also released a Syphon Filter: Dark Mirror demo, which did get listed on the demo page. (See above.) Before any of that there was a LocoRoco Holiday Demo, which also cannot be found through the official PSP browser site. That makes six demos total, only four of which are listed on the page which describes itself as "all demos".
Look, a modestly skilled monkey could do the work Sony needs done. What they really lack is competence. The demos are available elsewhere on Sony's own fricking pages, for Pete's sake. Here's the official page for the LocoRoco Holiday Demo. The download link on this page gets you the KillZone: Liberation demo.
Forget for now that there should be dozens of PSP demos available to promote the system. (I listed some I'd advocate in this earlier post.) Put aside the fact that, as an avid PSP user, I actually check every week to see if there are new demos by visiting the official PSP site through the PSP browser. Sony is getting trounced in the handheld market (the DS outsold the PSP 3-to-1 in the U.S. in the past month), yet can't manage to exploit one of its greatest strengths over the competition. What will it take for them to change? Or will they just give up and blame someone else for their self-inflicted failure?
If you have a PSP with browser, or you use the correct user agent string in your non-PSP browser (namely "Mozilla/4.0 (PSP (PlayStation Portable); 2.00)"), you can visit the official PSP site. When you get there, you'll see this:
Prominently featured on the main page is a link to the All Demos page. It's the blue bar in the screenshot above. As of this moment there are four demos listed on the page advertised as listing all PSP demos, as shown below:
What's wrong with that? The total number of demos is six, not four! (In case you're wondering, I'm not hiding anything below the bottom of the screen in the shot above. It doesn't scroll any further, and there are no other games to show.)You may recall that 45 days ago Sony was advertising its Killzone: Liberation demo, although not on this All Demos page. To this day that demo is not visible through Sony's official PSP browser site. Since the announcement of improved demo support Sony has also released a Syphon Filter: Dark Mirror demo, which did get listed on the demo page. (See above.) Before any of that there was a LocoRoco Holiday Demo, which also cannot be found through the official PSP browser site. That makes six demos total, only four of which are listed on the page which describes itself as "all demos".
Look, a modestly skilled monkey could do the work Sony needs done. What they really lack is competence. The demos are available elsewhere on Sony's own fricking pages, for Pete's sake. Here's the official page for the LocoRoco Holiday Demo. The download link on this page gets you the KillZone: Liberation demo.
Forget for now that there should be dozens of PSP demos available to promote the system. (I listed some I'd advocate in this earlier post.) Put aside the fact that, as an avid PSP user, I actually check every week to see if there are new demos by visiting the official PSP site through the PSP browser. Sony is getting trounced in the handheld market (the DS outsold the PSP 3-to-1 in the U.S. in the past month), yet can't manage to exploit one of its greatest strengths over the competition. What will it take for them to change? Or will they just give up and blame someone else for their self-inflicted failure?
--jvm at 22:59
Comment
[ 3 ]
09 March 2007
Phil Harrison confirms it: exclusivity not worth it (for now)
At GDC, we have Sony's Phil Harrison saying the following (emphasis added):
As for losing GTA IV, Harrison said that the PlayStation 3 was not suitable to be the exclusive home of Rockstar's upcoming title. "I don't think PS3 has the install base to support Rockstar's investment in GTA IV on its own," Harrison told the assembled bloggers. The first next-gen Grand Theft Auto game likely cost Rockstar considerable money and development time. That being such, it couldn't have sold enough copies on PS3 alone to make exclusivity worthwhile. In the future, as the number of PS3s in homes grows, it should become easier to nab major exclusives.I think that is awfully close to an important point I was trying to make recently: Sony expects the big-name titles to be cross-platform, primarily Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, so they can maximize the return on the huge development investment. The money saved on buying exclusives can be folded into Sony's internal studio budgets.
--jvm at 00:21
Comment
[ 3 ]
07 March 2007
Three things PlayStation Home is *not*
Sony finally got around to announcing a grand online plan and it's called PlayStation Home. Go watch the trailer, if you haven't already. I took a quick peek around at reactions and people are definitely irrationally excited, so someone's got to be the adult around here. Sober up, people.
Addendum: MattG is skeptical of PlayStation Home for other reasons. And Ronald Diemicke at MobyGames is thinking along the same lines as my #3, calling it a "glorified marketing space, more like a big mall designed to suck up money".
- PlayStation Home is not final software - In fact, it is alpha software, so stop acting like this is what we will actually see launched in Fall 2007. Take a minute, remember your history, and go read this article from May 2000. Then ponder all the online goodness we've enjoyed on our PlayStation 2s for the past seven years:
More than just a games console, the PlayStation 2 will offer support for DVD Video, be able to function as a set-top box, Internet access device and also feature a PC-Card interface through which it can be connected to broadband networks.
Breathtaking, isn't it? Practically none of that happened. Not even close. There wasn't even a network adaptor until 2002, for crying out loud.
It is through these broadband networks that SCEI plans to deliver games, audio and video content from 2001.
History gives us no reason to believe Sony can bring its PlayStation Home dream to fruition, so just stop acting like the presentation today meant anything. It meant nothing.
Do yourself, and all of us, a favor: take a "show me" stance toward anything Sony announces. - PlayStation Home will not be simple - What I always liked about GameSpy was that I could fire it up, ping some Quake servers, and immediately jump into a game. The virtual reality interface on PlayStation Home looks like an awful way to get people together for matches or games. If I want to play a PS3 game online, the last thing I want to do is have to watch people fiddle with human-shaped cursors just to get to the "Start Game" location.
My only experience with trying to arrange virtual people was with another Sony property, Everquest Online Adventures, and I hated trying to get a party together in person to make plans for a quest. Now, I'm sure World of Warcraft people have this all figured out, but Sony's just bull-headed enough to come up with their own ridiculous solution to a previously solved problem. (See: ATRAC.) - PlayStation Home is not free - You heard me. It's only free in the sense that iTunes is free. It's actually a clever trap to bleed you dry of money.
Understand this: Sony is going to charge money for virtual property at every turn. Want a rug for your virtual house? A chair? A different color of wall paint? Then you better open your wallet, buster.
Microsoft pioneered downloadable content fees, and Sony will take it to completely new level. It will be glorious.
Addendum: MattG is skeptical of PlayStation Home for other reasons. And Ronald Diemicke at MobyGames is thinking along the same lines as my #3, calling it a "glorified marketing space, more like a big mall designed to suck up money".
--jvm at 19:53
Comment
[ 11 ]
04 March 2007
Online game servers going dark all over
Almost exactly four years ago I warned this was coming. I said that one key difference between Twisted Metal Black: Online and SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs was the existence of a LAN mode in the former and not in the latter. Now more and more online games are shutting down and some game functionality will be lost forever.
The latest casualties are:
Which makes me wonder how much thought goes into these shutdowns. In particular, companies talk of cultivating online communities of fans and the economic advantages of having such groups identifying with a game and the company behind the game. Taking these ideas at face value, it must take some serious financial advantage to disrupt those communities.
Which means the communities are tiny. Of course, I knew that. Back when I tried to play Twisted Metal Black: Online in 2003, few people playing online. And when I played Outrun 2006: Coast 2 Coast recently, there wasn't even a single other player to be found online. I suspect the same is essentially true about MGS3 and Resident Evil Outbreak, in that the true number of people who will care is small enough to ignore.
Which leads me to wish that more games were like Daytona USA: CCE for the Sega Saturn and Netlink: player-to-player online modes. I believe that Ruffin and I could still play that game right now (as we once did, long distance across state lines) as it only depends on a Saturn, a game disc, a Netlink, and a phone line. I suppose with cell phones overtaking land lines, it might soon be difficult to do even that much. Ah well, I'm committed to being perpetually in the minority.
The latest casualties are:
- Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence (PS2)
- Resident Evil Outbreak: Files #1 & #2 (PS2) [as seen on NeoGAF; note: DO NOT visit later pages in that thread, they've been hacked to take over your browser with some nasty stuff; you've been warned]
- Phantasy Star Online Episodes I & II (Xbox)
Which makes me wonder how much thought goes into these shutdowns. In particular, companies talk of cultivating online communities of fans and the economic advantages of having such groups identifying with a game and the company behind the game. Taking these ideas at face value, it must take some serious financial advantage to disrupt those communities.
Which means the communities are tiny. Of course, I knew that. Back when I tried to play Twisted Metal Black: Online in 2003, few people playing online. And when I played Outrun 2006: Coast 2 Coast recently, there wasn't even a single other player to be found online. I suspect the same is essentially true about MGS3 and Resident Evil Outbreak, in that the true number of people who will care is small enough to ignore.
Which leads me to wish that more games were like Daytona USA: CCE for the Sega Saturn and Netlink: player-to-player online modes. I believe that Ruffin and I could still play that game right now (as we once did, long distance across state lines) as it only depends on a Saturn, a game disc, a Netlink, and a phone line. I suppose with cell phones overtaking land lines, it might soon be difficult to do even that much. Ah well, I'm committed to being perpetually in the minority.
--jvm at 21:55
Comment
[ 6 ]
02 March 2007
Xbox is the new PlayStation
By now most of the videogame industry has realized that the Xbox 360 is the new PlayStation 2. What many have yet to comprehend, however, is that Sony is perfectly happy to let that happen.
Seeds of this Generation
Go back to the launch of the Xbox and GameCube back in 2001. The first console generation of the 21st century had completely launched and Sony was building its commanding lead. The seeds of our current generation -- Xbox 360, Wii, and PlayStation 3 -- were sown then and are just now beginning to bear fruit.
Microsoft covets that role for its Xbox 360, and it will have it. Sony is willingly giving up. Like the PlayStation 2 before, it will offer thousands of games, from dreck to art, from cross-platform million-sellers to unique third-party exclusives. Only, there won't be as many of that last group -- the unique third-party exclusives -- much to Microsoft's dismay.
Sony's Gambit: First-Party Power
This is Sony's vision for the PlayStation 3: a powerful multi-use system headlined by huge first-party exclusives, bolstered by big-name cross-platform titles. They want their first-party games to be to their console what the Spider-man movies have been to their movie business. They want to diminish the role of the cheaper, lesser games that plagued its PSOne and PlayStation 2. They want you to think premium cable, only for videogames.
From that perspective Sony's apparent indifference to exclusivity for games like Grand Theft Auto 4, Assassin's Creed, Virtua Fighter 5 makes a lot more sense. Sony expects publishers and developers to feel obligated to make those big games for PlayStation 3, along with other platforms. Indeed, to maximize profits, publishers will need to bring those games to several platforms, and the Wii isn't even in the running. Eventually developers will tame the Cell, out of necessity, and Sony will have its sufficient software base.
As the importance of third-party exclusives diminishes, and cross-platform games become the norm, the first-party offerings will be the key to attracting consumers. And that is Sony's ace.
Phil Harrison recently explained exactly this to The Guardian: "[Developing new titles in-house is] absolutely the strategy. When we launched the PlayStation, there were no accompanying games developed by Sony. When we launched the PlayStation 2, there was one: Fantavision, which, beautiful game though it was, was no game on which to launch a platform. But the PS3 will launch with more exclusive, high-quality games from our studios than we've ever done before."
As reported by Screen Digest in late February, Sony's internal studios have more than 2.5 times the manpower of Microsoft's studios. In fact, Sony has more studio staff than Nintendo and Microsoft combined. If cross-platform exclusives are taken for granted, then Sony is in a far stronger position than Microsoft to define its platform with unique software. Killzone 2, Warhawk, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune -- these are but the beginning for Sony and their stable of developers. Microsoft had its year to set the standard for next-generation games with the likes of Gears of War, but from this point forward Sony intends to define the standard for which everyone else strives. It is the quality Sony hopes to achieve with software, the exceptional experience that they intend to offer, that justifies the high price of entry that the PlayStation 3 commands.
Incidentally, Sony isn't shutting out smaller games on the PlayStation 3 altogether. Lesser games, by developers big and small, will find room not on store shelves but on Sony's PlayStation Network as low-cost downloads. Think of it as one more step toward Phil Harrison's dream of disc-less PlayStation 4. And as can happen on Xbox Live Arcade, developers will perform an end run around the big publishers, something they all want to do.
The Stakes
In about a year's time we should have an idea of whether Sony's plans are going to pay off. Sony's initial crop of big-budget first-party games should have had a chance with reviewers and consumers. Europe's reception of the PlayStation 3 will have been assessed, and the viability of a $600 console will have been determined. This has to be the year of the PlayStation 3, or Sony will have a grim five years burning money to support a product few people wanted.
The greatest risk right now is that frustrated third parties could balk at the abstruse Cell architecture and the Blu-Ray data transfer issues and start handing exclusives to Microsoft. The added Xbox 360 momentum could create the positive feedback loop that sold more than 100 million PlayStation 2 consoles. If that happens, Sony would have handed Microsoft the keys to the kingdom on a silver platter.
Seeds of this Generation
Go back to the launch of the Xbox and GameCube back in 2001. The first console generation of the 21st century had completely launched and Sony was building its commanding lead. The seeds of our current generation -- Xbox 360, Wii, and PlayStation 3 -- were sown then and are just now beginning to bear fruit.
- The original Xbox attracted developers with its easy-to-use tools and integrated online services. Despite the change in machine architecture and continuing subscription costs for consumers, the Xbox 360 is lauded for improving on the gold standard its predecessor set for developers and online consumers.
- The GameCube played host to Nintendo's first party games, nontraditional games like Animal Crossing, and experimental controls like the Donkey Konga bongos and the Odama microphone. The Wii got a Zelda game at launch, packed in the crowd favorite Wii Sports, and would be nothing without its remarkable Wii controller.
- The PlayStation 2 puzzled developers with its non-standard architecture and primitive toolchain, leaving them to make of it what they could. The PlayStation 3 and its Cell architecture are even more unusual than the PS2, and developers are striving to understand its strengths and limitations.
Microsoft covets that role for its Xbox 360, and it will have it. Sony is willingly giving up. Like the PlayStation 2 before, it will offer thousands of games, from dreck to art, from cross-platform million-sellers to unique third-party exclusives. Only, there won't be as many of that last group -- the unique third-party exclusives -- much to Microsoft's dismay.
Sony's Gambit: First-Party Power
This is Sony's vision for the PlayStation 3: a powerful multi-use system headlined by huge first-party exclusives, bolstered by big-name cross-platform titles. They want their first-party games to be to their console what the Spider-man movies have been to their movie business. They want to diminish the role of the cheaper, lesser games that plagued its PSOne and PlayStation 2. They want you to think premium cable, only for videogames.
From that perspective Sony's apparent indifference to exclusivity for games like Grand Theft Auto 4, Assassin's Creed, Virtua Fighter 5 makes a lot more sense. Sony expects publishers and developers to feel obligated to make those big games for PlayStation 3, along with other platforms. Indeed, to maximize profits, publishers will need to bring those games to several platforms, and the Wii isn't even in the running. Eventually developers will tame the Cell, out of necessity, and Sony will have its sufficient software base.
As the importance of third-party exclusives diminishes, and cross-platform games become the norm, the first-party offerings will be the key to attracting consumers. And that is Sony's ace.
Phil Harrison recently explained exactly this to The Guardian: "[Developing new titles in-house is] absolutely the strategy. When we launched the PlayStation, there were no accompanying games developed by Sony. When we launched the PlayStation 2, there was one: Fantavision, which, beautiful game though it was, was no game on which to launch a platform. But the PS3 will launch with more exclusive, high-quality games from our studios than we've ever done before."
As reported by Screen Digest in late February, Sony's internal studios have more than 2.5 times the manpower of Microsoft's studios. In fact, Sony has more studio staff than Nintendo and Microsoft combined. If cross-platform exclusives are taken for granted, then Sony is in a far stronger position than Microsoft to define its platform with unique software. Killzone 2, Warhawk, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune -- these are but the beginning for Sony and their stable of developers. Microsoft had its year to set the standard for next-generation games with the likes of Gears of War, but from this point forward Sony intends to define the standard for which everyone else strives. It is the quality Sony hopes to achieve with software, the exceptional experience that they intend to offer, that justifies the high price of entry that the PlayStation 3 commands.
Incidentally, Sony isn't shutting out smaller games on the PlayStation 3 altogether. Lesser games, by developers big and small, will find room not on store shelves but on Sony's PlayStation Network as low-cost downloads. Think of it as one more step toward Phil Harrison's dream of disc-less PlayStation 4. And as can happen on Xbox Live Arcade, developers will perform an end run around the big publishers, something they all want to do.
The Stakes
In about a year's time we should have an idea of whether Sony's plans are going to pay off. Sony's initial crop of big-budget first-party games should have had a chance with reviewers and consumers. Europe's reception of the PlayStation 3 will have been assessed, and the viability of a $600 console will have been determined. This has to be the year of the PlayStation 3, or Sony will have a grim five years burning money to support a product few people wanted.
The greatest risk right now is that frustrated third parties could balk at the abstruse Cell architecture and the Blu-Ray data transfer issues and start handing exclusives to Microsoft. The added Xbox 360 momentum could create the positive feedback loop that sold more than 100 million PlayStation 2 consoles. If that happens, Sony would have handed Microsoft the keys to the kingdom on a silver platter.
--jvm at 05:39
Comment
[ 9 ]
26 February 2007
Response to Next-Gen editorial on PS3 BC
Colin Campbell gives a spirited defense of Sony's decision to drop the hardware in the PlayStation 3 that provided near complete backward compatibility with PSOne and PlayStation 2 software. I'm a fan of such compatibility, and I'm of course distressed that we may see compatibility diminish from what we've come to expect from the original. Campbell's editorial has a link soliciting responses and here's how I replied.
Two key points are glossed over in your piece.In defense of your position, I would add:
- True, Nintendo is not providing backward compatibility to all its previous consoles. However, this misses the important point that Nintendo is providing GameCube compatibility in the Wii. While it does not necessarily imply that Nintendo sees great value in backward compatibility, if it felt that it weren't worth the effort it would not have spent the time and money to make it polished enough for consumers to use in the finished hardware.
- Sony knows that its most important PlayStation 3 software will not arrive until later in 2007. In fact, the most important software for Sony's console business in the next six months will probably be on the PlayStation 2: Guitar Hero II and God of War 2, among others.
Consequently, it would be foolish to limit PlayStation 2 backward compatibility on the PlayStation 3. Doing so would provide one more hurdle to the consumer considering a PlayStation 3.
While I can grant that PSOne compatibility is not critical, I cannot discount the importance of PlayStation 2 software as the PlayStation 3 gets up to speed.
- A frugal shopper can get full PlayStation 2 and PSOne compatibility for under $100. It's called a PlayStation 2, and they're on store shelves now. It's a minor price to pay for hardware that plays some of the best games from the past 12 years.
- Moreover a point I thought you might have made in your defense of Sony is that no one knows the extent of the compatibility offered yet. Perhaps they're playing it safe and it'll be higher than the pessimists expect. And, at the very least, there is the potential for it to significantly improve over time.
--jvm at 11:43
Comment
[ 8 ]
23 February 2007
Why, yes, the GameStop/EB Games merger was a bad idea...
Chulip is a quirky PlayStation 2 title I've been watching and considering buying. It can currently only be bought in the United States through EB Games/GameStop. That is both surprising and dismaying.
Maybe the only way it could have been published was to secure a distribution deal with a huge retailer ahead of time, and EB Games/GameStop fits that description. However, it is precisely this kind of exclusivity crap that I fear will get out of control and lead to an even more consumer-hostile environment.
And Chulip isn't the only game. Settlers DS is getting the same treatment.
Maybe the only way it could have been published was to secure a distribution deal with a huge retailer ahead of time, and EB Games/GameStop fits that description. However, it is precisely this kind of exclusivity crap that I fear will get out of control and lead to an even more consumer-hostile environment.
And Chulip isn't the only game. Settlers DS is getting the same treatment.
Labels: business, ds, game stores, ps2
--jvm at 22:11
Comment
[ 4 ]
Exclusives for the new generation
Platform exclusive features will be the replacement for platform exclusive games. The latest case is Spider-Man 3 for the PlayStation 3 which will have a special New Goblin mini-game.
We saw the beginnings of this trend last generation: Splinter Cell (exclusives map on PS2, GBA connection on GameCube), Soul Calibur II (platform-exclusive characters), and Prince of Persia: Sands of Time (original Prince of Persia emulated on the PlayStation 2, the sequel Prince of Persia 2 on the Xbox). It will only get worse this generation.
It used to be that you could buy all three platforms and the exclusive games for each. Now, to get access to everything you not only need all three platforms but also all three versions of a particular game. Lovely.
And, yes, I did buy both versions of Pinball Hall of Fame, one for my PlayStation 2 and one for my PSP.
We saw the beginnings of this trend last generation: Splinter Cell (exclusives map on PS2, GBA connection on GameCube), Soul Calibur II (platform-exclusive characters), and Prince of Persia: Sands of Time (original Prince of Persia emulated on the PlayStation 2, the sequel Prince of Persia 2 on the Xbox). It will only get worse this generation.
It used to be that you could buy all three platforms and the exclusive games for each. Now, to get access to everything you not only need all three platforms but also all three versions of a particular game. Lovely.
And, yes, I did buy both versions of Pinball Hall of Fame, one for my PlayStation 2 and one for my PSP.
--jvm at 21:28
Comment
[ 4 ]
The first PS3 hardware revision shipping next month?
Reports this morning like this one at Next-Gen.biz and this one at Reuters indicate that something has happened to the PlayStation 3 hardware. The result is reduced PlayStation 2 compatibility. If the Reuters report is to be believed then, it looks like an internal change (my emphasis):
So the first hardware revision of the PlayStation 3 may be to remove the PS2 chips that were inside to provide compatibility? I have no idea how much that costs, but perhaps it will save some dough. Then later this year there will be the move to a 65nm chip fabrication process for the Cell which will, supposedly, cut costs for Sony even more.
If the hardware has changed, I wonder when we'll see those systems on American shelves. As I've said before, initial console hardware often has its own bugs, but also has features that get cut from later revisions. Not that is was a particularly bold prediction, but I did say at the time:
Even these cost-cutting measures may not mean a cut in price for the PlayStation 3. As indicated in this Next-Gen.biz report, Sony may look at adding cheap bits to the package to make the current prices more acceptable. That didn't work for the PSP and it won't work for the PlayStation 3 either.
I think Sony is missing the point. The $500 and $600 prices are simply too high for most people, regardless of what kind of bonus junk you pack in the box. There's a mental barrier around $300 beyond which most people will simply stop paying attention. Sony needs a basic system at $400 to be on the periphery of consumer consciousness.
Software will take over some of the functionality that was originally taken care of by dedicated chips, which means far fewer PlayStation 2 (PS2) games can be played on a European PS3 compared with the Japanese and American PS3 models which play 98 percent of old games.
So the first hardware revision of the PlayStation 3 may be to remove the PS2 chips that were inside to provide compatibility? I have no idea how much that costs, but perhaps it will save some dough. Then later this year there will be the move to a 65nm chip fabrication process for the Cell which will, supposedly, cut costs for Sony even more.
If the hardware has changed, I wonder when we'll see those systems on American shelves. As I've said before, initial console hardware often has its own bugs, but also has features that get cut from later revisions. Not that is was a particularly bold prediction, but I did say at the time:
If/when they move to a software emulator I think it highly unlikely that they'll achieve the same compatibility they can with hardware. Then again, the mighty Cell is magick, so anything's possible.Looks like that's coming true.
Even these cost-cutting measures may not mean a cut in price for the PlayStation 3. As indicated in this Next-Gen.biz report, Sony may look at adding cheap bits to the package to make the current prices more acceptable. That didn't work for the PSP and it won't work for the PlayStation 3 either.
I think Sony is missing the point. The $500 and $600 prices are simply too high for most people, regardless of what kind of bonus junk you pack in the box. There's a mental barrier around $300 beyond which most people will simply stop paying attention. Sony needs a basic system at $400 to be on the periphery of consumer consciousness.
--jvm at 08:39
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16 February 2007
The dream, or nightmare, of a videogame standards commission
Eric-Jon Rossel Waugh is has a commentary on Next-Gen.biz today which starts from David Jaffe's recent comment that in ten years there will be a single console and goes from there to propose a videogame standards commission. Here's the critical bit, I think:
Comments:
Which is to say, I think a commission like the one Eric-Jon Rossel Waugh proposes is unlikely to happen, and if it were to happen it would probably not lead the industry anywhere.
What the industry really needs is a videogame standards commission - a body headed by a rotating board of representatives nominated from all areas of the industry (focusing, of course, on actual game designers - of all sizes, from Electronic Arts to Treasure). This body would be charged with maintaining a detailed yet flexible long-term plan for progressive development of the medium. The board would assay in accordance with a constitution of irrefutable primary standards and ideals. Consensus would be the rule; no decision would be final without open debate, then full agreement of the board.
- Board members nominated by whom? By the initial board? And who will make up the initial board? While such a system could evolve into a workable system, I can easily see it devolving into an insiders group.
- Businesses are not going to give away details about what their future plans are. If such a commission had existed before the Wii and its controller became public, would Nintendo have wanted to talk about their newest advance? Or the Nintendo DS and its touch screen? Sure, they could talk about encouraging new concepts in user input and feedback, but they're still giving away some of what they consider ground they want to stake out before others do.
- That instinct by businesses to protect their advantages is addressed later by saying that the visionaries would need to take the lead and push from within each organization. I don't work in the private sector, but rather in a public institution. If anyone has ideals, it is some of my colleagues (and myself, occasionally). Yet, I have enough experience to see that even those with the power who also have ideals are very rarely able to achieve them. The best we can hope for in much of life is to have striven for ideals and accepted what tiny progress reality affords us.
- I'm not convinced that there can be a practical constitution of irrefutable primary standards and ideals for videogames. If someone made a proposal, I'd be happy to consider it, but my gut tells me that it will be either too specific (and rule out things that later turn out to be important) or too vague (and thus difficult to promote in any concrete manner).
- I naturally mistrust bureaucracy. Adding a layer here strikes me as ill-suited to the problems it seeks to solve. I suspect it will be fraught with competition from factions on the board and any progress made will be glacial. (See: OpenGL ARB.)
- Requiring unanimous consent gives every member a veto on every other one. The United States Congress will move like a cheetah compared to such a board.
Which is to say, I think a commission like the one Eric-Jon Rossel Waugh proposes is unlikely to happen, and if it were to happen it would probably not lead the industry anywhere.
--jvm at 11:42
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13 February 2007
Another view of sales by genre and publisher, plus spreadsheet
This is my last post on this data, but I was a bit dismayed to see that the graphs in Next-Gen.biz's huge article yesterday (previous post) only counted titles in each genre and from each publisher, not taking into account the sales of each. That's sort of like the Senate version of the data. Here is the House of Representatives version where I've taken publishers and genres and totalled the unit sales for each.
First, unit sales by genre. As always, click for the larger version.
Compare to the original Next-Gen.biz graph here.
Notes:
Compare to the original Next-Gen.biz graph here.
Notes:
First, unit sales by genre. As always, click for the larger version.
Compare to the original Next-Gen.biz graph here.Notes:
- Sports games pull a bit ahead of licensed (non-sports) games.
- Shooters jump ahead of Action games by a hair.
- RPGs move way up to parity with Action games and Shooters. (This is largely Square-Enix, although also some Pokemon.)
- Finally, the Other column shrinks relative to the others.
Compare to the original Next-Gen.biz graph here.Notes:
- EA pulls even further out ahead of everyone else. Much of that is just Madden NFL 07.
- THQ jumps to third place with its licensed game sales.
- Activision jumps to fourth on the strength of Call of Duty 3 and Guitar Hero 2.
- Take Two drops to fifth because they have more titles but none are huge sellers. (No GTA on consoles aside from the Liberty City Stories port from the PSP.)
- Square leaps from the bottom of the pack to the middle thanks to its small number of huge-selling RPGs.
- Microsoft jumps ahead of Sony primarily on sales of Gears of War.
- OpenOffice 2.0 ODS format (showing formulas and charts)
- CSV of just the game data
--jvm at 12:58
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12 February 2007
Correlation between Sales and Review Scores
There is a wealth of data in the Next-Gen.biz post today. Regrettably, I did not see a spreadsheet of data to play with. I have made one which I will upload later. Using my copy of the data I made a scatter plot of sales versus review scores. I excluded Madden since it is an aberration, an outlier. It would be at 6500 on the horizontal axis and 85% on the vertical one, so you can see how far out it would be. (Click for a larger version.)
The correlation coefficient shows whether there is a correlation between two sets of data. The closer it is to 1.0, the more closely correlated the data are. The closer to 0.0, the less a correlation. The correlation between unit sales and revenue, for example, is 0.97, which shows that higher sales is closely correlated with higher revenue.
According to OpenOffice, the correlation coefficient between unit sales and score is 0.29. I think we can speak of 0.29 as being a bit low. There is a closer correlation between revenue and review score at a 0.38 correlation coefficient.
Interestingly, Madden skews the numbers a great deal. Taking it out of the data, the correlation coefficient between unit sales and data is 0.34 and the correlation coefficient between revenue and review score is 0.46.
Which leads me to think that there is more than just my intuition to tell me that "consumers know quality when they see it" isn't quite the real picture. They may know quality, but that doesn't mean they want to spend their money on it.
The correlation coefficient shows whether there is a correlation between two sets of data. The closer it is to 1.0, the more closely correlated the data are. The closer to 0.0, the less a correlation. The correlation between unit sales and revenue, for example, is 0.97, which shows that higher sales is closely correlated with higher revenue.According to OpenOffice, the correlation coefficient between unit sales and score is 0.29. I think we can speak of 0.29 as being a bit low. There is a closer correlation between revenue and review score at a 0.38 correlation coefficient.
Interestingly, Madden skews the numbers a great deal. Taking it out of the data, the correlation coefficient between unit sales and data is 0.34 and the correlation coefficient between revenue and review score is 0.46.
Which leads me to think that there is more than just my intuition to tell me that "consumers know quality when they see it" isn't quite the real picture. They may know quality, but that doesn't mean they want to spend their money on it.
--jvm at 18:55
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[ 8 ]
15% crap or 38% crap?
I hope to get more time going over the stats later today, but at first glance I was bothered by this statement in Next-Gen.biz's latest entry in the TOP 100 TOP 100 LISTS OF ALL TIME.
It also shows that consumers know quality when they see it. Only three games in the top 20 scored an average of less than 75%.Ok, so that's 15% are below average. What about the whole list of 100 games? Well, 38 games (i.e. 38%) are below average. That's a big difference and a far bit from convincing me that consumers know quality when they see it.
--jvm at 08:25
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[ 7 ]
09 February 2007
The best selling game systems of all time
In a business whose headlines are dominated by the hardware and software sales of Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, it helps to have a little perspective. In this case, the needed context is probably in your pocket right now.
Let's review some numbers. In the last two generations, Sony has sold over 230 million PlayStation-branded game machines. Nintendo has sold nearly 400 million from its home consoles -- NES, SNES, Nintendo 64, and GameCube -- to its long-dominant handheld systems -- Game Boy, Game Boy Color, Game Boy Advance, and Nintendo DS. While it has only had a console on shelves since 2001, Microsoft has already racked up combined sales of over 30 million of its two Xbox systems.
Yet these are not the game systems most people own. Their game systems don't say Nintendo or Microsoft or Sony. They say Nokia or Motorola or Samsung. (Ok, some of them actually do say Sony: Sony Erricsson. But they're still relatively small.) Even the cheapest phones can play some form of Tetris nowadays and many are far, far more capable.
According to Strategy Analytics, over one billion mobile phones shipped during all of 2006. In all of 2006, the leading vendor, Nokia, shipped almost 350 million phones. Those numbers are just staggering when compared to the sales of dedicated game systems. For example, if we consider all the systems shipped by Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo since 1983 and compare to just the mobile phone shipments in 2006 we get the following:
In fact, if we combine the numbers for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo and stack that up against the mobile phone shipments, it's still not much of a contest.
According to NPD, the dedicated videogame market made an estimated $6.5 billion on software last year alone. With over a billion phones shipped in 2006, is it any surprise that analysts regularly predict that the mobile game market will eventually hit $10 billion a year in the near future?
Let's review some numbers. In the last two generations, Sony has sold over 230 million PlayStation-branded game machines. Nintendo has sold nearly 400 million from its home consoles -- NES, SNES, Nintendo 64, and GameCube -- to its long-dominant handheld systems -- Game Boy, Game Boy Color, Game Boy Advance, and Nintendo DS. While it has only had a console on shelves since 2001, Microsoft has already racked up combined sales of over 30 million of its two Xbox systems.
Yet these are not the game systems most people own. Their game systems don't say Nintendo or Microsoft or Sony. They say Nokia or Motorola or Samsung. (Ok, some of them actually do say Sony: Sony Erricsson. But they're still relatively small.) Even the cheapest phones can play some form of Tetris nowadays and many are far, far more capable.
According to Strategy Analytics, over one billion mobile phones shipped during all of 2006. In all of 2006, the leading vendor, Nokia, shipped almost 350 million phones. Those numbers are just staggering when compared to the sales of dedicated game systems. For example, if we consider all the systems shipped by Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo since 1983 and compare to just the mobile phone shipments in 2006 we get the following:
In fact, if we combine the numbers for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo and stack that up against the mobile phone shipments, it's still not much of a contest.According to NPD, the dedicated videogame market made an estimated $6.5 billion on software last year alone. With over a billion phones shipped in 2006, is it any surprise that analysts regularly predict that the mobile game market will eventually hit $10 billion a year in the near future?
--jvm at 14:46
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[ 9 ]
08 February 2007
Valve's console trojan horse
I'm very pleased to see official word on the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 versions of Half-life 2. The package will include the original Half-life 2, Episodes 1 & 2, Portal, and Team Fortress 2. The real question now becomes how will networking be handled, and will all platforms be able to play against each other.
I'd like to put two quotes together that I think indicate that we'll see the Steam service on the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 relatively soon. First, GameSpot's report from yesterday:
But it's more than just downloadable extras, it's the entire Steam platform. I think that's the implication of the above report and the "no comment" in a recent CVG interview (found via Steam Review):
I wouldn't be surprised to see Valve try it. Like the rest of us, they like money, and actually have the means to make this kind of thing happen.
I'd like to put two quotes together that I think indicate that we'll see the Steam service on the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 relatively soon. First, GameSpot's report from yesterday:
The Orange Box will be released for the PC, 360, and PS3, but EA confirmed to GameSpot that it will be the only Half-Life 2 product offered for the two consoles at retail.That's my emphasis. Maybe it's just extra verbiage from the GameSpot writer, but I bet that means what it implies: there will be other offerings through network downloads.
But it's more than just downloadable extras, it's the entire Steam platform. I think that's the implication of the above report and the "no comment" in a recent CVG interview (found via Steam Review):
CVG: One question on our mind is whether your forthcoming Half-Life 2 releases on Xbox 360 and PS3 will be tied in with Steam - what's the score here?Together I think those indicate the real news behind the Half-life 2 packages: they're Valve's trojan horse to get Steam's storefront out on the big consoles.Lombardi: Nothing to report today.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Valve try it. Like the rest of us, they like money, and actually have the means to make this kind of thing happen.
--jvm at 10:05
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05 February 2007
Next-Gen's take on retail policies
Colin Campbell has published a Next-Gen.biz commentary on DVD Empire's departure from online game retail. In addition to writing a whole two pages without using the term price point*, here are a few other bits I thought interesting.
First up:
Colin has previously argued for this kind of pricing:
While I'm uncomfortable with the idea, I cannot give a solid reason -- other than my own wallet -- to argue against it. Anyone else have that vague sense of unease?
This seems to miss something:
The "Finally Finally" section at the end of the column does address this as a future issue. When all three major consoles have these kinds of download services, I think you can consider it a current issue, not a future one.
Which brings me to:
On the topic of used games:
* On the other hand, the podcast a couple of weeks back did use the term "price point" eighteen times in about 10 minutes. Yes, I counted.
First up:
All large retail accounts and distributors are offered price protection of varying degrees of 'generosity' on products. As publishers 'mark down' a game, refunds are passed down the channel according to a game's strength at retail. Even small retailers should be able to negotiate some protection with their distributors on prices that come down.I'm not comfortable with a retailer -- large or small -- deciding a priori which are the good games and which are not. For example, most people would hate Tecmo's Deception, but I thought it was devilishly charming and inventive. I was willing to look past the chunky graphics and terrible translation to the entertaining mechanics. It sold enough to get a sequel, but if some high level decisions are made to undersell niche games, then we're one step closer to prime time TV homogenization than we were before.
[snip]
The best way to avoid this problem is to not stock bad games, which generally drop in price faster than good games, or to manage stock in such a way that it becomes less of an issue.
Colin has previously argued for this kind of pricing:
This site has long argued for more fluidity in the market for games, based on their popularity. Clearly, some games are worth a good deal more than others; a fact that becomes clear very soon after a game is released. Games that sell well ought to remain at a higher price for as long as possible, while games that review badly and track poorly via online search mechanics, ought to be released at a lower price. The relative shares of these price fluctuations ought to be borne by different sectors of the market appropriately.As I understand it, make prices proportional with demand. If millions want Halo 3, then it should command a high price. Applied to, say, the PlayStation 3 this would have permitted Sony to reap the rewards that went to eBay scalpers.
While I'm uncomfortable with the idea, I cannot give a solid reason -- other than my own wallet -- to argue against it. Anyone else have that vague sense of unease?
This seems to miss something:
The 'long tail' has never been so much of an issue with games, which are super hit-driven, and rely heavily on new technology and the latest look.It's true that the leading edge of the industry is currently driven this way, but the long tail is becoming more important with every Wii virtual console release, every PSOne game on the PlayStation Network, and every classic game retrofitted for Xbox Live Arcade. Retailers will move the used game horizon forward faster as the back catalogs get shifted to download services. And if we move to a completely online distribution system, the tail will grow longer as older media can stock the virtual shelves as long as the publisher wants to provide a means to purchase. Just look at GameTap -- as long as it can make money, it has no reason to remove any titles from its catalog, whether they're niche or not.
The "Finally Finally" section at the end of the column does address this as a future issue. When all three major consoles have these kinds of download services, I think you can consider it a current issue, not a future one.
Which brings me to:
Consumers do not browse games stores as they might some other form of media.I don't think this is true of services like GameTap. I think it's entirely possible, in fact probable, that most people who use GameTap will buy in for a few games they know and hang around to try games they know a little about or have never seen before. I'm no GameTap fan, but that's precisely the kind of thing I enjoyed about having older games stocking the Rhino shelves.
On the topic of used games:
There is something unpleasant about these creations being sold on again and again without any reward going to the makers but the pros of this practise may well outweigh the cons.I find nothing unpleasant about used bookstores, garage sales, or thrift stores (aside from the occasional funky aroma). Selling used games is the same idea. As it is, this industry is always pushing gamers to upgrade from, dispose of, or drop older products. It is that attitude that I find unpleasant, not that consumers live up to the expectations set for them.
* On the other hand, the podcast a couple of weeks back did use the term "price point" eighteen times in about 10 minutes. Yes, I counted.
--jvm at 12:06
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[ 8 ]
30 January 2007
PSP: Now with 25% more demos!
Today Sony released firmware version 3.10 (wonder why?) and announced the availability of a Killzone: Liberation demo. This brings to five the total number of demos available directly from Sony:
- LocoRoco
- World Tour Soccer 06
- LocoRoco Halloween Demo
- LocoRoco Christmas Demo
- Killzone: Liberation
[Sony] promised that more first- and third-party demos would be released on an ongoing basis. In the coming weeks, Sony expects to offer demos for Syphon Filter: Dark Mirror and SOCOM: US Navy SEALs Fireteam Bravo 2.Well, that's a start, but hardly the best the PSP has to offer. I hope Sony breaks the system wide open for third parties, especially smaller ones, to put out demos of their games. My own choices for demos would be:
- Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops
- Lumines 2
- Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee
- Field Commander
- Tekken: Dark Resurrection
- Pinball Hall of Fame: The Gottlieb Collection
- Every Extend Extra
--jvm at 20:34
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[ 0 ]
29 January 2007
Sony's PSOne on PSP: punishing the faithful...again
Sony needs to fix the PSOne emulation situation on the PSP right now.
There is now a firmware downgrader for every PSP ever sold, including my own which has been upgraded to firmware version 3.03. Anyone who owns a PSP and an older copy of Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (I do) can then install a copy of the PSOne emulator that Sony has been selling through its PlayStation Store. Then you can rip your very own PSOne games and play them with the emulator.
The catch is that redistribution of the emulator is probably illegal. I'd guess that it has also been hacked in a way that allows it to use any game image, which probably violated the DMCA at some level and certainly the license agreement that came with the software. So, for reasons other than not wanting to brick my PSP, I'm going to stay away from hacked firmware and the emulator.
Sony needs to remedy the situation right now, or else risk deeply angering some of the fans of its hardware and software. (I count myself among those.) As it is, the folks willing to partake in copyright infringement (distribution of the emulator) are getting the most from their Sony hardware.
To fix this, Sony needs to:
Perhaps there is some other means by which Sony can stop slapping the fans in the face, but it needs to fix the situation and fast.
There is now a firmware downgrader for every PSP ever sold, including my own which has been upgraded to firmware version 3.03. Anyone who owns a PSP and an older copy of Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (I do) can then install a copy of the PSOne emulator that Sony has been selling through its PlayStation Store. Then you can rip your very own PSOne games and play them with the emulator.
The catch is that redistribution of the emulator is probably illegal. I'd guess that it has also been hacked in a way that allows it to use any game image, which probably violated the DMCA at some level and certainly the license agreement that came with the software. So, for reasons other than not wanting to brick my PSP, I'm going to stay away from hacked firmware and the emulator.
Sony needs to remedy the situation right now, or else risk deeply angering some of the fans of its hardware and software. (I count myself among those.) As it is, the folks willing to partake in copyright infringement (distribution of the emulator) are getting the most from their Sony hardware.
To fix this, Sony needs to:
- Make the PlayStation Store available to PSP owners.
- Sell the emulator to me at some reasonable price. Let me suggest no more than $60, although lower is better. And upgrades/improvements should be free.
- Include a game ripper with the emulator or sell it separately. I don't care.
- Sell pre-ripped images of games (guaranteed to work) for a modest fee (say $4).
Perhaps there is some other means by which Sony can stop slapping the fans in the face, but it needs to fix the situation and fast.
--jvm at 11:09
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[ 11 ]
22 January 2007
A few notes on artistic games
A piece I wrote speculating on an aspect of games this coming generation is up on Next-Gen.biz this morning. The topic is what I call artistic games, and I thought it might be worth adding few comments here.
- I intentionally left the term "artistic game" vague, which some might feel is a weakness of the piece. I can certainly appreciate that criticism. There are a few games that folks generally agree are artistic (or simply art) and I tried to stick to those as examples to minimize the discussion of just what constitutes art and focus on the point, which is that an evenly split market may lead to a more conservative market.
- There are some notable exceptions to the observation that most artistic games ended up on the PlayStation 2. I think Odama would count, and I could even see The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker too. Maybe something oddball like Cubivore or P.N. 03? All the examples I came up with were on the GameCube and I couldn't think of anything on the Xbox, although that might be simply my relative lack of knowledge of the Xbox library.
- I had to exclude handhelds since there are more experimental, and therefore artistic, games in that space. In particular, I find several of the games from the Bit Generations line for the Game Boy Advance to be beautiful specimens of design.
--jvm at 11:12
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[ 9 ]
18 January 2007
Burning Crusade and Ultima's Ghost Towns
Last night, I fell off the wagon and reactivated my WoW account. I don't have the Burning Crusade expansion, so I'm stuck in the Old World, so to speak. What I saw reminded me of my experience with expansions to Ultima Online.
When UO started throwing in expansions, the old worlds very quickly started clearing out. Ole Britannia (or whatever the capital is) went from a bustling urban center to an absolute ghost town, made all the more eerie as the wandering NPC robots grossly outnumbered humans for the first time in my experience.
That's happening now in WoW. Ironforge is nearly empty... auction houses, banks, city square, all nearly empty on my server, even if n=1 nights played for now. I couldn't tell if my "new video card" was providing much better performance or if there simply wasn't anything to render!
This should concern Blizzard. The creation of a virtual ghetto is a bad thing. Maybe Ironforge can add a bingo?
Blizzard needs to ensure that expansions are backwards compatible, not so much that expansionless folk like myself can go to the new lands, nor even that we should be provided access to the new trainers, etc, but players with expansions should continue to flow through old hotspots (possibly with new buildings in cities accessible only if you have the expansions, etc) so that the communities at least do not give the impression of being quite so perfectly cleaved.
Perhaps it will hit an equilibrium at some point, but without adding new zones in the old world, (even without knowing what's in the Outland) I somewhat doubt Ironforge will ever be the impressive hub it was before.
When UO started throwing in expansions, the old worlds very quickly started clearing out. Ole Britannia (or whatever the capital is) went from a bustling urban center to an absolute ghost town, made all the more eerie as the wandering NPC robots grossly outnumbered humans for the first time in my experience.
That's happening now in WoW. Ironforge is nearly empty... auction houses, banks, city square, all nearly empty on my server, even if n=1 nights played for now. I couldn't tell if my "new video card" was providing much better performance or if there simply wasn't anything to render!
This should concern Blizzard. The creation of a virtual ghetto is a bad thing. Maybe Ironforge can add a bingo?
Blizzard needs to ensure that expansions are backwards compatible, not so much that expansionless folk like myself can go to the new lands, nor even that we should be provided access to the new trainers, etc, but players with expansions should continue to flow through old hotspots (possibly with new buildings in cities accessible only if you have the expansions, etc) so that the communities at least do not give the impression of being quite so perfectly cleaved.
Perhaps it will hit an equilibrium at some point, but without adding new zones in the old world, (even without knowing what's in the Outland) I somewhat doubt Ironforge will ever be the impressive hub it was before.
--ruffin at 14:58
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[ 4 ]
13 January 2007
Do you use your PSP?
I second Dustin's question: Just what are people doing with all those PSPs? I use my PSP to play games, but apparently many people don't. Or if they do, they only play really old games.
According to the NPD data for 2006, Sony has sold around 6.7 million PSPs in the U.S. since the launch but then no single game sold more than 600,000 copies in the last year. I have a hard time believing that kind of data, but there it is. Moreover, the games that are selling well are all from 2005.
I can't believe that enough people know about the homebrew/emulation possibilities for that to be the answer.
I fear that what's really happening is that people are thinking they want one, buying it, picking up one new game and a handful of cheap old games, and then packing the whole thing away and forgetting about it. That would explain the continued hardware sales, fueled mostly by the PlayStation brand and a few higher profile games, but slack software sales.
I certainly understand how that happens -- my own PSP sat idle for months during 2006. Things turned around for me -- my PSP has gotten heavy use for the past three months, almost exclusively on new games -- but one wonders if it isn't too little, too late for the public.
According to the NPD data for 2006, Sony has sold around 6.7 million PSPs in the U.S. since the launch but then no single game sold more than 600,000 copies in the last year. I have a hard time believing that kind of data, but there it is. Moreover, the games that are selling well are all from 2005.
I can't believe that enough people know about the homebrew/emulation possibilities for that to be the answer.
I fear that what's really happening is that people are thinking they want one, buying it, picking up one new game and a handful of cheap old games, and then packing the whole thing away and forgetting about it. That would explain the continued hardware sales, fueled mostly by the PlayStation brand and a few higher profile games, but slack software sales.
I certainly understand how that happens -- my own PSP sat idle for months during 2006. Things turned around for me -- my PSP has gotten heavy use for the past three months, almost exclusively on new games -- but one wonders if it isn't too little, too late for the public.
--jvm at 01:34
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[ 12 ]
06 January 2007
Yeah, miss you too.
Some time ago, I gave EverQuest a shot. It gave me nausea, and that was that.
Almost. A while after I'd stopped playing, I got an email from the EverQuest folk saying they'd like me to come back. With it, if I remember correctly (and I'm pretty sure I told Matt, so perhaps he remembers), they offered to give me a free month's worth of playtime to boot.
That's pretty impressive. It's good customer service, and if I'd merely not enjoyed the game, I certainly would have come back for at least the month. What more can you ask for if you've got EQ stock? If it's good enough, I'm once again reduced to a revenue stream. Great promotion.
So I haven't played WoW in a while. Here's their "it's been a while; we sure miss you" pitch.
Blizzard Entertainment proudly invites you to return to the World of Warcraft on January 16th and journey beyond the Dark Portal, where an infinity of new experiences await you. Given the high volume of returning subscribers we expect when The Burning Crusade™ expansion goes live, if you are planning a return to Azeroth, we recommend reactivating your account as soon as possible in order to avoid the expected rush of launch-day activations.
That gives me another type of nausea. Their only argument is that they're admitting they won't be prepared enough to handle new players later this month? I'm supposed to come back so that I save time re-registering?! Just a guess, but I'm betting the servers will be nicely queued too, then.
Not only is there no discount, I've now learned my "launch-day" play experience will likely stink.
Thanks WoW. My Druid's probably sitting this one out.
Almost. A while after I'd stopped playing, I got an email from the EverQuest folk saying they'd like me to come back. With it, if I remember correctly (and I'm pretty sure I told Matt, so perhaps he remembers), they offered to give me a free month's worth of playtime to boot.
That's pretty impressive. It's good customer service, and if I'd merely not enjoyed the game, I certainly would have come back for at least the month. What more can you ask for if you've got EQ stock? If it's good enough, I'm once again reduced to a revenue stream. Great promotion.
So I haven't played WoW in a while. Here's their "it's been a while; we sure miss you" pitch.
Blizzard Entertainment proudly invites you to return to the World of Warcraft on January 16th and journey beyond the Dark Portal, where an infinity of new experiences await you. Given the high volume of returning subscribers we expect when The Burning Crusade™ expansion goes live, if you are planning a return to Azeroth, we recommend reactivating your account as soon as possible in order to avoid the expected rush of launch-day activations.
That gives me another type of nausea. Their only argument is that they're admitting they won't be prepared enough to handle new players later this month? I'm supposed to come back so that I save time re-registering?! Just a guess, but I'm betting the servers will be nicely queued too, then.
Not only is there no discount, I've now learned my "launch-day" play experience will likely stink.
Thanks WoW. My Druid's probably sitting this one out.
--ruffin at 19:05
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[ 1 ]
05 January 2007
Sony losing exclusives; what about Microsoft?
Every day for the past month someone in my RSS reader is writing about how Sony's losing the war because its PlayStation 3 exclusives from third parties are just time-limited exclusives and will also appear on the Xbox 360. Discussions branch out from there to whether third party exclusives are becoming extinct, a question I'll leave for another post. (Short answer: See how Splinter Cell was handled on Xbox, GameCube, and PlayStation 2.)
What's troubling is that we've heard precious little about how Microsoft's exclusives are getting a ride on Sony's console. As far as I know, no Dead or Alive (fighting or ogling by Tecmo) games have been announced for the PlayStation 3. And Microsoft still has a lock on Bioshock (by Irrational Games) and Lost Planet (by Capcom) and Dead Rising (also by Capcom) and Gears of War (by Epic) and Eternal Sonta (aka Trusty Bell: Chopin's Dream by Namco Bandai). At least three of those are by Japanese companies, two of which (Capcom and Namco Bandai) have benefited greatly from Sony's systems in the past. Resident Evil and Ridge Racer, anyone? Maybe a little Devil May Cry or Tekken?
If I see any one of those Xbox 360 exclusives flip, then I'll be more inclined to believe that Sony's going to benefit from this death of exclusives. Until then, count me among the skeptics.
What's troubling is that we've heard precious little about how Microsoft's exclusives are getting a ride on Sony's console. As far as I know, no Dead or Alive (fighting or ogling by Tecmo) games have been announced for the PlayStation 3. And Microsoft still has a lock on Bioshock (by Irrational Games) and Lost Planet (by Capcom) and Dead Rising (also by Capcom) and Gears of War (by Epic) and Eternal Sonta (aka Trusty Bell: Chopin's Dream by Namco Bandai). At least three of those are by Japanese companies, two of which (Capcom and Namco Bandai) have benefited greatly from Sony's systems in the past. Resident Evil and Ridge Racer, anyone? Maybe a little Devil May Cry or Tekken?
If I see any one of those Xbox 360 exclusives flip, then I'll be more inclined to believe that Sony's going to benefit from this death of exclusives. Until then, count me among the skeptics.
--jvm at 10:34
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[ 18 ]
19 December 2006
Who won when Ritual lost? Valve.
Scott Miller made an interesting point in Next-Gen.biz Podcast #6: Why would anyone in the business of making first-person shooters want to partner with Valve and sell their game over Steam? Valve gets access to all your sales data, access to your player stats, and knows your business plans months ahead of anyone else.
So I think it's worth pointing out the big winner in the failure of Ritual's SiN Episodes: Valve and its own episodic shooter, Half-Life 2. They know more now about what works and what doesn't, and you can bet they'll be using it.
Not only does Valve now know how many sales Ritual got for the price they asked, but they probably also have access to the raw numbers behind this page of public statistics collected by Ritual's game after the 1.4 patch. (For more on the stats, read the 22 June 2006 entry on the SiN Episodes blog.) They know which maps were played most inonline matches Arena Mode. It's at least possible that they even have access to information about how players actually play the game, if the data used to tune difficulty is also being sent back:
No wonder Scott Miller was wary of Valve and Steam.
So I think it's worth pointing out the big winner in the failure of Ritual's SiN Episodes: Valve and its own episodic shooter, Half-Life 2. They know more now about what works and what doesn't, and you can bet they'll be using it.
Not only does Valve now know how many sales Ritual got for the price they asked, but they probably also have access to the raw numbers behind this page of public statistics collected by Ritual's game after the 1.4 patch. (For more on the stats, read the 22 June 2006 entry on the SiN Episodes blog.) They know which maps were played most in
[W]e have a number of so-called Advisors tracking a ton of parameters, including obvious things like your health and your accuracy, but also seemingly outlandish stuff, like how much you jump during combat.Ritual paid for the Source engine, paid for the Steam distribution, developed their game, failed, and now they probably won't be able to make real use of everything they learned. Valve, on the other hand, has all their money, no risk, and a pile of opposition research.
No wonder Scott Miller was wary of Valve and Steam.
--jvm at 16:08
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